Political risk impact on China’s OFDI along the belt and road initiative

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2024.106407

Qin Yang , Xiuguo Gong , Tao Chen , Tian Xiao

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Geopolitical tensions increasingly affect China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI); however, conventional risk models do not adequately capture these complexities. This study introduces a new quantitative index for assessing the political risks impacting Chinese OFDI along the Belt and Road Initiative, considering both host country systems and bilateral relations. Our analysis reveals an inverse relationship between the host country’s political risk and China’s OFDI, with a tendency towards developing nations. Coastal countries are more sensitive to political risks than landlocked ones. Strong US ties in host countries discourage Chinese investment, whereas market size, resources, and innovation capacity moderate the risk effects. These results provide critical insights for policymakers and business leaders to guide strategic investments and diplomatic strategies in politically volatile regions.

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政治风险对中国 "一带一路 "对外直接投资的影响

地缘政治紧张局势对中国对外直接投资（OFDI）的影响与日俱增；然而，传统的风险模型并不能充分反映这些复杂性。本研究引入了一个新的量化指标，用于评估影响 "一带一路 "倡议沿线中国对外直接投资的政治风险，同时考虑东道国制度和双边关系。我们的分析揭示了东道国政治风险与中国对外直接投资之间的反向关系，并倾向于发展中国家。沿海国家比内陆国家对政治风险更敏感。东道国与美国的紧密联系阻碍了中国的投资，而市场规模、资源和创新能力则缓和了风险效应。这些结果为政策制定者和商界领袖在政治动荡地区指导战略投资和外交策略提供了重要启示。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

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