Unveiling marine heatwave dynamics in the Persian /Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman: A spatio-temporal analysis and future projections

Abstract

Amid escalating global marine heat waves, the Arabian Gulf is critical due to its shallow depths, high temperatures, and vulnerability to climate change impacts. This study provides a detailed spatio-temporal analysis of marine heatwave events from 1982 to 2022 across the Arabian Gulf and the adjacent Gulf of Oman. The study delineates regions of heightened vulnerability within these water bodies by comprehensively analyzing seasonal and annual variabilities and trend assessments. Moreover, an exploration of prevailing surface circulation patterns, underpinned by an extensive study of global circulation model outputs, elucidates the oceanographic mechanisms contributing to temperature dynamics. Identifying 25 significant heat wave events, with a focused examination of the six most protracted episodes, is noteworthy among the findings. Strikingly, the analysis reveals that the Gulf of Oman surpasses the Arabian Gulf in heatwave intensity. Looking forward, the investigation extends to future surface water temperature projections up to the close of the current century. The collective results underscore the region's acute susceptibility to the climate change perturbations of climate change, emphasizing the urgency of targeted interventions to mitigate these effects and address concurrent local stressors.