Nomogram for predicting 10-year postoperative recurrence of stage I gastric cancer.

IF 1.5 4区医学 Q4 ONCOLOGY

Translational cancer research Pub Date : 2024-10-31 Epub Date: 2024-10-28 DOI:10.21037/tcr-24-692

Tong-Dan Lyu, Ming-Peng Luo, Hao-Wei Hu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: With the advancement of various auxiliary examination techniques, the detection rate of stage I gastric cancer has gradually increased, and its clinical first-choice treatment is surgery. Although patients with stage I gastric cancer generally have a good postoperative survival rate, there is still a certain probability of recurrence. Given the large number of gastric cancer cases, there is a vast population of patients with stage I disease. We are aiming to identify the risk factors for postoperative recurrence of stage I gastric cancer and to establish a reliable predictive model to assess the risk of recurrence in the population for clinical practice.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to investigate predictive factors for recurrence among stage I gastric cancer patients who underwent curative gastrectomy between 2000 and 2018. The cohort was divided into training and validation sets for the development and validation of a nomogram. Prognostic factors were evaluated through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Significant variables identified by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots were used to construct nomograms predicting the probability of 5- and 10-year recurrence.

Results: Risk factors for recurrence included sex, age, race, histology, tumor size, American Joint Committee on Cancer Tumor (AJCC T) and primary site, which were used to construct the nomogram. The C-index for both the training and validation cohorts indicated that the nomogram possessed good calibration and discrimination abilities in predicting the probability of 5- and 10-year recurrence after curative surgery for stage I gastric cancer.

Conclusions: This study established a reliable predictive model for recurrence following curative gastrectomy in stage I gastric cancer based on a population cohort. The findings of this study have the potential to significantly impact clinical practice by providing clinicians with tools for personalized risk assessment and for making informed treatment decisions.

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预测 I 期胃癌术后 10 年复发的提名图。

背景：随着各种辅助检查技术的进步，I 期胃癌的检出率逐渐提高，临床上首选的治疗方法是手术治疗。虽然 I 期胃癌患者的术后生存率普遍较高，但仍有一定的复发概率。由于胃癌病例数量庞大，I 期胃癌患者群体也十分庞大。我们的目的是找出 I 期胃癌术后复发的风险因素，并建立一个可靠的预测模型来评估人群的复发风险，以利于临床实践：在这项回顾性队列研究中，我们利用监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库调查了2000年至2018年期间接受治愈性胃切除术的I期胃癌患者的复发预测因素。队列被分为训练集和验证集，以开发和验证提名图。通过单变量和多变量 Cox 回归分析评估了预后因素。通过一致性指数（C-index）和校准图确定的重要变量被用于构建预测5年和10年复发概率的提名图：复发风险因素包括性别、年龄、种族、组织学、肿瘤大小、美国癌症联合委员会肿瘤（AJCC T）和原发部位，这些因素被用于构建提名图。训练队列和验证队列的 C 指数表明，提名图在预测 I 期胃癌根治术后 5 年和 10 年复发概率方面具有良好的校准和区分能力：本研究基于人群队列建立了一个可靠的 I 期胃癌根治性胃切除术后复发预测模型。这项研究的结果为临床医生提供了个性化风险评估和做出明智治疗决策的工具，从而有可能对临床实践产生重大影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Translational cancer research ONCOLOGY-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

252

期刊介绍： Translational Cancer Research (Transl Cancer Res TCR; Print ISSN: 2218-676X; Online ISSN 2219-6803; http://tcr.amegroups.com/) is an Open Access, peer-reviewed journal, indexed in Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE). TCR publishes laboratory studies of novel therapeutic interventions as well as clinical trials which evaluate new treatment paradigms for cancer; results of novel research investigations which bridge the laboratory and clinical settings including risk assessment, cellular and molecular characterization, prevention, detection, diagnosis and treatment of human cancers with the overall goal of improving the clinical care of cancer patients. The focus of TCR is original, peer-reviewed, science-based research that successfully advances clinical medicine toward the goal of improving patients'' quality of life. The editors and an international advisory group of scientists and clinician-scientists as well as other experts will hold TCR articles to the high-quality standards. We accept Original Articles as well as Review Articles, Editorials and Brief Articles.