Performance of Polygenic Risk Scores for Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma in Populations of African Descent.

Abstract

Importance: Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) polygenic risk scores (PRSs) continue to be evaluated in primarily European-ancestry populations despite higher prevalence and worse outcomes in African-ancestry populations.

Objective: To evaluate how established POAG PRSs perform in African-ancestry samples from the Genetics in Glaucoma Patients of African Descent (GIGA), Genetics of Glaucoma in Individuals of African Descent (GGLAD), and Million Veteran Program (MVP) datasets and compare these with European-ancestry samples.

Design, setting, and participants: This was a multicenter, cross-sectional study of POAG cases and controls from Tanzania, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, and the US. Included were individuals of African descent from South Africa and Tanzania from the GIGA dataset; individuals of African descent from Ghana, Nigeria, and the US from the GGLAD dataset; and individuals of African or European descent from the US in the MVP dataset. Data were analyzed from January 2022 to July 2023.

Exposures: Three PRSs derived from large meta-analyses of European and Asian populations, namely Gharahkhani et al (Gharahkhani PRS), Han et al (Han PRS), and Craig et al (Craig PRS).

Main outcomes and measures: Odds ratios (ORs) for POAG risk stratification comparing the highest and lowest quintiles; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and liability coefficient of determination (R2) for the addition of PRS to a baseline of age, sex, and first 5 principal components.

Results: A total of 11 673 cases and 66 432 controls were included in this study across 7 ancestral groups. Mean (SD) age of the total participants was 76.9 (8.7) years, with 74 304 males (95.1%). The following were included in each dataset: GIGA (663 cases, 476 controls), GGLAD (1471 cases, 1482 controls), and MVP (9559 cases, 64 474 controls). Increases in ORs were found for the highest POAG risk quintile ranging from an OR of 1.68 (95% CI, 1.17-2.43) in Ghanaians to 7.05 (95% CI, 2.73-19.6) in the South African multiple ancestry group (which derives from at least 5 distinct ancestral groups: Khoisan, Bantus, Europeans, Indians, and Southeast Asians) with the Gharahkhani PRS. The Han PRS showed OR increases for the highest POAG risk quintile ranging from 2.27 (95% CI, 1.49-3.47) in African American individuals in the GGLAD dataset to 7.24 (95% CI, 6.47-8.12) in Europeans. The Craig PRS predicted OR increases in the highest quintile for all groups ranging from 1.51 (95% CI, 1.05-2.18) in Ghanaians to 6.31 (95% CI, 5.67-7.04) in Europeans. However, AUROC and R2 increases above baseline were lower for all African-ancestry compared with European-ancestry groups in the 3 tested PRSs.

Conclusions and relevance: In this cross-sectional study, despite some improvements in OR-based risk stratification using the Gharahkhani PRSs, Han PRSs, and Craig PRSs, consistently lower improvements in AUROC and R2 for African-ancestry compared with European-ancestry groups highlight the need for risk prediction models tailored to diverse populations.