{"title":"Predicting the spatiotemporal changes of an agriculturally vulnerable region of Bangladesh","authors":"Sayeda Laizu Aktar, Moon Islam, Afsana Haque","doi":"10.1007/s12518-024-00595-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Agricultural land, the primary factor of food production, is essential for ensuring food security. Land constraints have led policymakers to promote agricultural intensification to achieve higher production, which is no longer sustainable. In Bangladesh, the consistent decline of agricultural land at a regional scale is a rising concern for food security. This study intends to assess the spatiotemporal changes in agricultural lands concerning food security, including temporary cropland, permanent cropland, and fallow land. LANDSAT satellite imagery for 1995, 2010, and 2022 were categorized using a hybrid image classification method. However, the study limits to produce higher accuracy as compromised due to the spatial resolution of LANDSAT imagery. MLP-CA Markov chain model was used to predict the agricultural land for 2041 by employing driver variables. The study finds around 15% loss in agricultural land from 1995–2022 with significant losses (12%) between 2010–2022. The built-up area is doubled after each of the time periods. Temporary crop-producing lands are declining quickly and converted rapidly (around 30%) to built-up areas between 2010–2022. Notably, agricultural land near riverine zones rapidly converts to built-up areas, hinting at potential environmental consequences. The model predicts around 10% loss in agricultural land with a likely conversion around cities and riverine areas, driven by infrastructure development. Contradictory sectoral policies have driven such conversion without effective land use policy. Hence, the study implies formulating a physical plan and urbanization policy for growth control and management, as well as land zoning and master plan for protecting valuable agricultural land.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46286,"journal":{"name":"Applied Geomatics","volume":"16 4","pages":"1003 - 1023"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Geomatics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12518-024-00595-2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"REMOTE SENSING","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Agricultural land, the primary factor of food production, is essential for ensuring food security. Land constraints have led policymakers to promote agricultural intensification to achieve higher production, which is no longer sustainable. In Bangladesh, the consistent decline of agricultural land at a regional scale is a rising concern for food security. This study intends to assess the spatiotemporal changes in agricultural lands concerning food security, including temporary cropland, permanent cropland, and fallow land. LANDSAT satellite imagery for 1995, 2010, and 2022 were categorized using a hybrid image classification method. However, the study limits to produce higher accuracy as compromised due to the spatial resolution of LANDSAT imagery. MLP-CA Markov chain model was used to predict the agricultural land for 2041 by employing driver variables. The study finds around 15% loss in agricultural land from 1995–2022 with significant losses (12%) between 2010–2022. The built-up area is doubled after each of the time periods. Temporary crop-producing lands are declining quickly and converted rapidly (around 30%) to built-up areas between 2010–2022. Notably, agricultural land near riverine zones rapidly converts to built-up areas, hinting at potential environmental consequences. The model predicts around 10% loss in agricultural land with a likely conversion around cities and riverine areas, driven by infrastructure development. Contradictory sectoral policies have driven such conversion without effective land use policy. Hence, the study implies formulating a physical plan and urbanization policy for growth control and management, as well as land zoning and master plan for protecting valuable agricultural land.
期刊介绍:
Applied Geomatics (AGMJ) is the official journal of SIFET the Italian Society of Photogrammetry and Topography and covers all aspects and information on scientific and technical advances in the geomatics sciences. The Journal publishes innovative contributions in geomatics applications ranging from the integration of instruments, methodologies and technologies and their use in the environmental sciences, engineering and other natural sciences.
The areas of interest include many research fields such as: remote sensing, close range and videometric photogrammetry, image analysis, digital mapping, land and geographic information systems, geographic information science, integrated geodesy, spatial data analysis, heritage recording; network adjustment and numerical processes. Furthermore, Applied Geomatics is open to articles from all areas of deformation measurements and analysis, structural engineering, mechanical engineering and all trends in earth and planetary survey science and space technology. The Journal also contains notices of conferences and international workshops, industry news, and information on new products. It provides a useful forum for professional and academic scientists involved in geomatics science and technology.
Information on Open Research Funding and Support may be found here: https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-research/institutional-agreements