Simulating future cultivated land using a localized SSPs-RCPs framework: A case study in Yangtze River Economic Belt

IF 6.5 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Habitat International Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI:10.1016/j.habitatint.2024.103210

Tong Wu , Si Wu , Shougeng Hu , Qian Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Simulating cultivated land changes is vital for improving decision-making in sustainable agriculture. Compared to previous studies, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs-RCPs) scenarios provide a comprehensive framework for integrating climate and socioeconomic factors, offering deeper insights into future cultivated land dynamics. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as the study area, we developed localized SSPs-RCPs scenarios and adopted Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model to simulate cultivated land changes under multiple scenarios. The findings indicate that cultivated land is predicted to decrease under all scenarios, with the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios showing the highest and lowest decrease of 39.24% and 8.32%, respectively. By 2050, the loss of cultivated land in the upper reaches is expected to be significantly greater than that in the middle and lower reaches. Furthermore, grasslands, forests, and urban areas are the main types of land that replacing cultivated land in the YREB. The hotspots of cultivated land loss are in mountainous areas such as Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou. Additionally, the gravity center of cultivated land distribution moved along the southeast to northeast, with the center of gravity shifting from Guizhou to Hunan under scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. This study offers insights into the future development of cultivated land in the YREB and highlights the significance of implementing and improving policies for its protection.

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利用本地化的 SSPs-RCPs 框架模拟未来耕地：长江经济带案例研究

模拟耕地变化对改进可持续农业决策至关重要。与以往研究相比，"共享社会经济路径和代表性浓度路径"（SSPs-RCPs）情景提供了一个整合气候和社会经济因素的综合框架，有助于深入了解未来耕地的动态变化。我们以长江经济带为研究区域，建立了本地化的 SSPs-RCPs 情景，并采用全球变化评估模型（GCAM）和未来土地利用模拟模型（FLUS）模拟了多种情景下的耕地变化。结果表明，在所有情景下，耕地面积都会减少，其中 SSP1-2.6 和 SSP3-7.0 情景下耕地面积减少幅度最大，分别为 39.24% 和 8.32%。到 2050 年，上游耕地的减少量预计将明显高于中下游。此外，草地、森林和城市地区是长三角地区替代耕地的主要土地类型。耕地流失的热点地区在四川、云南和贵州等山区。此外，在 SSP1-2.6 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下，耕地分布重心沿东南向东北移动，重心从贵州转移到湖南。本研究为未来粤东西北地区耕地的发展提供了启示，并强调了实施和完善耕地保护政策的重要意义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Habitat International Multiple-

CiteScore

10.50

自引率

10.30%

发文量

151

审稿时长

38 days

期刊介绍： Habitat International is dedicated to the study of urban and rural human settlements: their planning, design, production and management. Its main focus is on urbanisation in its broadest sense in the developing world. However, increasingly the interrelationships and linkages between cities and towns in the developing and developed worlds are becoming apparent and solutions to the problems that result are urgently required. The economic, social, technological and political systems of the world are intertwined and changes in one region almost always affect other regions.