Social–ecological system trajectories of peri-urban watersheds based on a spatial analysis of vulnerability components: A case study in Mexico City, 1999–2039

IF 5.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Ambio Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI:10.1007/s13280-024-02053-0
Alejandra Pedraza-Gama, María Perevochtchikova, J. Mauricio Galeana-Pizaña
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Abstract

Urban periphery watersheds play a crucial role in providing diverse ecosystem services, especially hydrological services (HES), for society at different temporal and spatial scales; moreover, local populations directly influence ecosystem functionality through their decisions and actions. The interactions between social and ecological factors create social–ecological systems (SESs), whose trajectories continuously change in response to internal factors such as land use cover change (LUCC) and external factors such as climate change (CC). This situation influences the vulnerability of SESs in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capacity. In this study, the social–ecological vulnerability (SEV) of the periphery of Mexico City was investigated based on the Collaborative Protocol for Ecosystem Services Assessment and Social–ecological Vulnerability Mapping (ECOSER) and a quantitative method approach. For this purpose, spatial analysis was performed using the ecological and social spatial data for LUCC tendencies calculated for 1999–2019 and projected for short-term CC scenarios and using LUCC calculated for 2039 in trend-based (TREND) and restrictive (REST) scenarios. The results reveal that increases in the SEV in 2039 will be related to important decreases in the HES; furthermore, the REST scenario suggests decreases in the SEV due to decreases in the HES, assuming that environmental public policy instruments will be preserved in this region. The present work aims to contribute to decision-making for HES preservation at local and regional scales and to help develop adaptation strategies under LUCC and CC scenarios.

Abstract Image

基于脆弱性成分空间分析的城郊流域社会生态系统轨迹:墨西哥城案例研究,1999-2039 年。
城市周边流域在不同时间和空间尺度上为社会提供各种生态系统服务,尤其是水文服务(HES)方面发挥着至关重要的作用;此外,当地居民通过其决策和行动直接影响着生态系统的功能。社会和生态因素之间的相互作用形成了社会生态系统(SES),其轨迹随着土地利用覆盖变化(LUCC)等内部因素和气候变化(CC)等外部因素而不断变化。这种情况从暴露程度、敏感性和适应能力等方面影响着 SES 的脆弱性。本研究基于生态系统服务评估和社会生态脆弱性绘图合作协议(ECOSER)和定量方法,对墨西哥城周边地区的社会生态脆弱性(SEV)进行了调查。为此,利用生态和社会空间数据对 1999-2019 年的 LUCC 趋势进行了计算,并对短期 CC 情景进行了预测,还利用基于趋势(TREND)和限制性(REST)情景计算的 2039 年 LUCC 进行了空间分析。研究结果表明,2039 年的 SEV 增加将与 HES 的大幅下降有关;此外,假设该地区将保留环境公共政策工具,REST 情景表明,由于 HES 的下降,SEV 也将下降。本研究旨在为地方和区域范围内保护 HES 的决策做出贡献,并帮助制定 LUCC 和 CC 情景下的适应战略。
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来源期刊
Ambio
Ambio 环境科学-工程:环境
CiteScore
14.30
自引率
3.10%
发文量
123
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: Explores the link between anthropogenic activities and the environment, Ambio encourages multi- or interdisciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. Ambio addresses the scientific, social, economic, and cultural factors that influence the condition of the human environment. Ambio particularly encourages multi- or inter-disciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. For more than 45 years Ambio has brought international perspective to important developments in environmental research, policy and related activities for an international readership of specialists, generalists, students, decision-makers and interested laymen.
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