The influence of land use planning and exposure to flooding on urban growth in San José, Costa Rica

IF 6 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107407

Eduardo Pérez-Molina , Rosendo Pujol-Mesalles , Jonathan Aguero-Valverde , Félix Zumbado-Morales

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We estimate areas of potential flooding exposure within the San José Metropolitan Region with morphometric methods. Based on this potential hazard zoning, we use a spatial-statistical model to explore the difference introduced by land use regulations (municipal and regional) on urban growth, controlling for potential exposure to hazards and other sources of spatial heterogeneity. The potential flood zoning derived coincided with upstream rivers and flat areas between them (likely susceptible to urban drainage capacity problems). We estimated regional land use regulations significantly constrain urban development (with urban growth reductions of about 6 %), but the constraint does not increase in areas exposed to potential flooding; municipal environmental protection zoning was estimated to decrease urban development by 8 %, with an additional but very small 0.1–0.9 % reduction in potential flooding areas. Regional instruments fundamentally applied to the steeper (and hence less exposed to flooding) periphery whereas municipal land use instruments did constrain land from development (especially along rivers) within urban areas.

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土地利用规划和洪水风险对哥斯达黎加圣何塞城市发展的影响

我们采用形态计量学方法估算了圣何塞大都会区内可能遭受洪水侵袭的区域。在此潜在危害分区的基础上，我们使用空间统计模型探讨了土地使用法规（市级和地区级）对城市发展的影响，并控制了潜在危害风险和其他空间异质性来源。所得出的潜在洪水区划与上游河流和河流之间的平坦地区（可能容易出现城市排水能力问题）相吻合。我们估计，区域土地使用法规极大地限制了城市发展（城市增长减少了约 6%），但这种限制在潜在洪涝地区并没有增加；据估计，市政环境保护分区使城市发展减少了 8%，潜在洪涝地区额外减少了 0.1%-0.9%，但幅度很小。区域性措施主要适用于地势较陡（因此受洪水影响较小）的周边地区，而市政土地使用措施则限制了城市地区内的土地开发（尤其是沿河地区）。

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来源期刊

Land Use Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

13.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

553

期刊介绍： Land Use Policy is an international and interdisciplinary journal concerned with the social, economic, political, legal, physical and planning aspects of urban and rural land use. Land Use Policy examines issues in geography, agriculture, forestry, irrigation, environmental conservation, housing, urban development and transport in both developed and developing countries through major refereed articles and shorter viewpoint pieces.