Risk model for predicting failure to rescue after hepatectomy: Cohort study of 1371 consecutive patients.

Abstract

Aim: Although hepatectomy is a complex surgical procedure, its incidence among older patients has increased due to global aging. However, few studies have focused on the association between age and failure to rescue (FTR) posthepatectomy. This study aimed to investigate the association between age and FTR and develop a risk model for FTR following hepatectomy.

Methods: We analyzed a total of 1371 consecutive patients who underwent primary hepatectomy between July 2003 and September 2022. The patients were divided into three groups according to their age: young-old (<65 years), pre-old (65-74 years), and old group (≥75 years). Additionally, the associations among age, FTR, and risk factors for FTR were investigated. Subsequently, a risk model was developed to predict the FTR.

Results: Of the 1371 patients, 373 (27.2%) experienced major complications, and FTR occurred in 15 patients. The older group showed a higher FTR rate (8.4%) than the young-old (1.3%) and pre-old (4.3%) groups (p = 0.03). Multivariate analyses indicated that older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.15; p = 0.045) and American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status score ≥3 (OR 4.35; 95% CI 1.24-15.2; p = 0.02) were independent predictive factors for FTR. The risk model exhibited an accuracy with an area under the curve of 0.80 (95% CI 0.69-0.92). Calibration plots of the model revealed a concordance index of 0.73.

Conclusions: This study identified an association between age, FTR, and risk factors for FTR posthepatectomy. Together, our risk model is a clinically relevant, internally validated, and useful tool for predicting FTR posthepatectomy.