A pre-trained multi-step prediction informer for ship motion prediction with a mechanism-data dual-driven framework

Abstract

The advancement of autonomous maritime surface ships has increased the need for accurate and rapid multi-step prediction of ship motion for decision-making, motion planning, and real-time control tasks. This paper proposes a multi-step prediction method based on Informer with a pre-trained strategy to achieve accurate and fast motion prediction for ships, which substitutes generative inference for rolling prediction to avoid the cumulative error caused by the increasing time horizon. Due to the difference in temporal features from long-term control actions and short-term state sequences, heterogeneous inputs of encoder and decoder are designed to respectively capture their information without information redundancy. To address the bottleneck between the high cost of real data acquisition and the high demand for deep learning methods for data, we propose a mechanism-data dual-driven framework. This framework utilizes a prior mechanism model to generate virtual data incorporating a range of excitation signals designed in accordance with the results of free-running model tests. To reduce the need for real data and increase interpretability, the improved Informer is pre-trained by virtual data from the mechanism model before being trained by real data. Our experiments for multi-step ship motion prediction demonstrate that the proposed method respectively reduces the error and time to 41.36% and 13.20% on average compared to state-of-the-art and classical methods.