Quantifying the degree of scientific innovation breakthrough: Considering knowledge trajectory change and impact

Abstract

Scientific breakthroughs have the potential to reshape the trajectory of knowledge flow and significantly impact later research. The aim of this study is to introduce the Degree of Innovation Breakthrough (DIB) metric to more accurately quantify the extent of scientific breakthroughs. The DIB metric takes into account changes in the trajectory of knowledge flow, as well as the deep and width of impact, and it modifies the traditional assumption of equal citation contributions by assigning weighted citation counts. The effectiveness of the DIB metric is assessed using ROC curves and AUC metrics, demonstrating its ability to differentiate between high and low scientific breakthroughs with high sensitivity and minimal false positives. Based on ROC curves, this study proposes a method to calculate the threshold for high scientific breakthrough, reducing subjectivity. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through a dataset consisting of 1108 award-winning computer science papers and 9832 matched control papers, showing that the DIB metric surpasses single-dimensional metrics. The study also performs a granular analysis of the innovation breakthrough degree of non-award-winning papers, categorizing them into four types based on originality and impact through 2D histogram visualization, and suggests tailored management strategies. Through the adoption of this refined classification strategy, the management of innovation practices can be optimized, ultimately fostering the enhancement of innovative research outcomes. The quantitative tools introduced in this paper offer guidance for researchers in the fields of science intelligence mining and science trend prediction.