E. Belenguer, J. Segarra-Tamarit, E. Pérez, R. Vidal-Albalate
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Electricity market prices depend on various variables, including energy demand, weather conditions, gas prices, renewable generation, and other factors. Fluctuating prices are a common characteristic of electricity markets, making electricity price forecasting a complex process where predicting different variables is crucial. This paper introduces a hybrid forecasting model developed for the Spanish case. The model comprises four forecasting tools, with three of them relying on artificial neural networks, while the demand forecasting model employs a similar-day approach with temperature correction. This model can be employed by electrical energy trading companies to enhance their trading strategies in the day-ahead market and in derivative markets with a time horizon ranging from two to ten days. The results indicate that, with a forecasting horizon of two days, the price forecast has a rMAE of 8.18%. Furthermore, the model enables a market agent to accurately decide whether to purchase energy in the daily market or in the derivatives market in 69.9% of the days.
期刊介绍:
The aim of the journal is to provide an international forum for the dissemination of up-to-date information in the fields of the mathematics and computers, in particular (but not exclusively) as they apply to the dynamics of systems, their simulation and scientific computation in general. Published material ranges from short, concise research papers to more general tutorial articles.
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, published monthly, is the official organ of IMACS, the International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (Formerly AICA). This Association, founded in 1955 and legally incorporated in 1956 is a member of FIACC (the Five International Associations Coordinating Committee), together with IFIP, IFAV, IFORS and IMEKO.
Topics covered by the journal include mathematical tools in:
•The foundations of systems modelling
•Numerical analysis and the development of algorithms for simulation
They also include considerations about computer hardware for simulation and about special software and compilers.
The journal also publishes articles concerned with specific applications of modelling and simulation in science and engineering, with relevant applied mathematics, the general philosophy of systems simulation, and their impact on disciplinary and interdisciplinary research.
The journal includes a Book Review section -- and a "News on IMACS" section that contains a Calendar of future Conferences/Events and other information about the Association.