Short-term electricity price forecasting through demand and renewable generation prediction

IF 4.4 2区 数学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
E. Belenguer, J. Segarra-Tamarit, E. Pérez, R. Vidal-Albalate
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Electricity market prices depend on various variables, including energy demand, weather conditions, gas prices, renewable generation, and other factors. Fluctuating prices are a common characteristic of electricity markets, making electricity price forecasting a complex process where predicting different variables is crucial. This paper introduces a hybrid forecasting model developed for the Spanish case. The model comprises four forecasting tools, with three of them relying on artificial neural networks, while the demand forecasting model employs a similar-day approach with temperature correction. This model can be employed by electrical energy trading companies to enhance their trading strategies in the day-ahead market and in derivative markets with a time horizon ranging from two to ten days. The results indicate that, with a forecasting horizon of two days, the price forecast has a rMAE of 8.18%. Furthermore, the model enables a market agent to accurately decide whether to purchase energy in the daily market or in the derivatives market in 69.9% of the days.
通过需求和可再生能源发电预测进行短期电价预测
电力市场价格取决于各种变量,包括能源需求、天气条件、天然气价格、可再生能源发电量和其他因素。价格波动是电力市场的共同特征,因此电价预测是一个复杂的过程,对不同变量的预测至关重要。本文介绍了针对西班牙情况开发的混合预测模型。该模型由四种预测工具组成,其中三种依赖于人工神经网络,而需求预测模型则采用了带温度校正的相似日方法。电能贸易公司可利用该模型来加强其在提前市场和衍生品市场上的交易策略,时间跨度为两到十天不等。结果表明,在预测期限为两天的情况下,价格预测的 rMAE 为 8.18%。此外,该模型还能让市场代理在 69.9% 的情况下准确决定是在每日市场还是在衍生品市场购买能源。
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来源期刊
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 数学-计算机:跨学科应用
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
4.30%
发文量
335
审稿时长
54 days
期刊介绍: The aim of the journal is to provide an international forum for the dissemination of up-to-date information in the fields of the mathematics and computers, in particular (but not exclusively) as they apply to the dynamics of systems, their simulation and scientific computation in general. Published material ranges from short, concise research papers to more general tutorial articles. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, published monthly, is the official organ of IMACS, the International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (Formerly AICA). This Association, founded in 1955 and legally incorporated in 1956 is a member of FIACC (the Five International Associations Coordinating Committee), together with IFIP, IFAV, IFORS and IMEKO. Topics covered by the journal include mathematical tools in: •The foundations of systems modelling •Numerical analysis and the development of algorithms for simulation They also include considerations about computer hardware for simulation and about special software and compilers. The journal also publishes articles concerned with specific applications of modelling and simulation in science and engineering, with relevant applied mathematics, the general philosophy of systems simulation, and their impact on disciplinary and interdisciplinary research. The journal includes a Book Review section -- and a "News on IMACS" section that contains a Calendar of future Conferences/Events and other information about the Association.
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