Long-term stability in protected-areas? A vision from American/New World amphibians

IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
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Abstract

Protected areas (PA) have proven to be one of the best ways to conserve biodiversity against environmental changes. Amphibians are considered the most threatened group, with habitat loss due to deforestation identified as their major threat. Here, we assessed for each PA of the American continent: 1) amphibian’s occurrence (Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) vs. International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) data); 2) temperature velocity and estimated the climate residence time, and using the latest models of the land future use; 3) we estimated the changes of natural vs. modified cover in three future scenarios. Amphibian occurrence showed differences between databases, while GBIF data shows that 52 % of the amphibian species occurring in the continent are in PA, based on IUCN data, 85 % are protected. Results from climate change show a low pace of climate velocity during the last century that is maintained in the green scenario (SSP126). However, change in temperature increases in rate in the rest of the scenarios, with scenario SSP58 showing the highest velocity of temperature change. Future estimates of residence times in PA show that lower levels as emission scenarios tend to be higher. These results are worrisome since climate lag, specifically temperature increase over the PA will probably affect amphibian communities as shown in previous studies. Changes in climate patterns have a direct—mostly negative—impact on amphibians’ ability to disperse and reproduce. The results of land use change were unexpected, since the categories showed minimal changes. However, the data on urbanization changes do not seem to be reflecting the trends of other databases, which may be causing artifacts in the comparisons in the future models of land use. Further research will be necessary to evaluate the extent of similarities and differences in future projections of land use including urbanization and human population between different databases.

Abstract Image

保护区的长期稳定性?美洲/新世界两栖动物的愿景
事实证明,保护区是保护生物多样性免受环境变化影响的最佳途径之一。两栖动物被认为是受威胁最大的类群,森林砍伐导致的栖息地丧失是其主要威胁。在此,我们对美洲大陆的每个保护区进行了评估:1)两栖动物的出现率(全球生物多样性信息基金(GBIF)与世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)的数据);2)温度速度和估计的气候停留时间,并使用最新的土地未来使用模型;3)我们估计了三种未来情景下自然覆盖与改良覆盖的变化。两栖动物在不同数据库中的分布情况存在差异,GBIF 数据显示,非洲大陆分布的两栖动物物种中有 52% 属于保护区,而根据世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)的数据,85% 属于保护区。气候变化的结果表明,上个世纪的气候速度较低,在绿色方案(SSP126)中保持不变。然而,在其他方案中,气温变化的速度都在加快,其中 SSP58 方案的气温变化速度最快。未来对 PA 中停留时间的估计表明,排放情景越低,停留时间越长。这些结果令人担忧,因为气候滞后,特别是 PA 上温度的升高很可能会影响两栖动物群落,这一点在之前的研究中已经有所体现。气候模式的变化会对两栖动物的扩散和繁殖能力产生直接影响,其中大部分是负面影响。土地利用变化的结果出乎意料,因为各类土地利用变化极小。不过,城市化变化的数据似乎并没有反映出其他数据库的趋势,这可能会导致未来土地利用模型的比较出现假象。有必要开展进一步研究,以评估不同数据库之间在未来土地利用(包括城市化和人口)预测方面的异同程度。
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来源期刊
Geography and Sustainability
Geography and Sustainability Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
16.70
自引率
3.10%
发文量
32
审稿时长
41 days
期刊介绍: Geography and Sustainability serves as a central hub for interdisciplinary research and education aimed at promoting sustainable development from an integrated geography perspective. By bridging natural and human sciences, the journal fosters broader analysis and innovative thinking on global and regional sustainability issues. Geography and Sustainability welcomes original, high-quality research articles, review articles, short communications, technical comments, perspective articles and editorials on the following themes: Geographical Processes: Interactions with and between water, soil, atmosphere and the biosphere and their spatio-temporal variations; Human-Environmental Systems: Interactions between humans and the environment, resilience of socio-ecological systems and vulnerability; Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing: Ecosystem structure, processes, services and their linkages with human wellbeing; Sustainable Development: Theory, practice and critical challenges in sustainable development.
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