Tweeting to be a constitution-writer in Chile: Social media activity, public discourse, and electoral outcomes during pandemic times

Abstract

We examine the impact of social media activity and content on the electoral performance of 1373 candidates who ran in the 2021 Constitutional election in Chile. In line with the two-step flow of communication hypothesis, estimates from binary and fractional response probit models reveal that candidates with an active Twitter/X account and higher user engagement metrics (i.e., retweets and likes per tweet) are more likely to be elected and secure a larger share of votes. Regarding the content disseminated on social media, the effect of emphasized subjects on electoral outcomes is topic-dependent. Specifically, candidates who focus their posts on sociopolitical issues improve their electoral performance, while tweeting about economics tends to reduce the likelihood of being elected as a constitution-writer in Chile. This could be attributed to the 2021 Constitutional election being part of an institutional response to a series of events, including widespread protests across the country and a strong public demand for profound changes to the Chilean status quo.