Autocorrelations of the Wolf Number Cycle Fragments and Solar Half-Cycle Forecast

IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
S. V. Yakovleva, S. V. Starchenko
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Autocorrelations of fragments of the Wolf number series (V2) are considered for 6-year forecasting (solar half-cycle). For physical and optimal reasons, fragments similar to one and half cycles are used. Testing is successfully performed on sufficiently reliable pairs of fragments of the series consisting of a fixed and a time-shifted fragment. A pair is selected for testing if the correlation coefficient is 0.91 or more when its components are combined. The original modification of the fixed fragment and the parts of the series following it are used. Similarly, 6-year forecasts after 2023 are produced from the fragment (2008.5–2023.5), which has correlation coefficients from 0.81 to 0.96 with fragments (1978.5–1993.5), (1901.5–1916.5), (1922.5–1937.5), (1964.5–1979.5), and (1985.5–2000.5). The maximum Wolf number (161 ± 30) is expected in mid-2024.

Abstract Image

狼数周期片段的自相关性与太阳半周期预测
考虑了沃尔夫数列(V2)片段的自相关性,用于 6 年预报(太阳半周期)。由于物理和优化原因,使用了类似于一个周期和半个周期的片段。测试在由固定片段和时移片段组成的足够可靠的序列片段对上成功进行。如果一对片段的相关系数大于或等于 0.91,则可以对其进行测试。使用固定片段的原始修改和其后的序列部分。同样,2023 年之后的 6 年预测由片段 (2008.5-2023.5) 生成,该片段与片段 (1978.5-1993.5)、(1901.5-1916.5)、(1922.5-1937.5)、(1964.5-1979.5) 和 (1985.5-2000.5) 的相关系数为 0.81 至 0.96。狼的最大数量(161 ± 30)预计将出现在 2024 年中期。
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来源期刊
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Earth and Planetary Sciences-Space and Planetary Science
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
33.30%
发文量
65
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Geomagnetism and Aeronomy is a bimonthly periodical that covers the fields of interplanetary space; geoeffective solar events; the magnetosphere; the ionosphere; the upper and middle atmosphere; the action of solar variability and activity on atmospheric parameters and climate; the main magnetic field and its secular variations, excursion, and inversion; and other related topics.
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