Predictors of advance care planning in 11 high-income nations.

Abstract

Background: Elderly population is increasing in high-income countries. For instance, by 2050, 21.4% of the United States population is expected to be 65+, thus making advance care planning (ACP) increasingly important. We aim to identify predictors of ACP completion in 11 high-income countries and explore relationships between ACP and utilization factors.

Method: Using the 2021 International Health Policy (IHP) survey data, we assessed the relationship between sociodemographic factors, healthcare utilization, and ACP. The primary outcome variable was a composite of three ACP activities. A generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to identify predictors of ACP completion.

Results: Analyses included 18,677 older adults who answered at least one ACP question. Only 5126 (27.4%) reported completion of three ACP activities. Germany (64.7%) showed the highest completion rates, while Sweden (5.0%) and France (5.0%) showed the lowest completion rates. Predictors of ACP completion identified in the GLMM were: increasing age (incidence rate ratio [IRR] range between 1.2 and 1.5), completion of high school education or more (IRR: 1.1, 95% CI: 1.1-1.1), higher income (IRR: 1.1, 95% CI: 1.1-1.2), presence of two or more health conditions (IRR: 1.1, 95% CI: 1.0-1.1), hospital stay in the past 2 years (IRR: 1.1, 95% CI: 1.1-1.1), and access to quality primary care (IRR: 1.0, 95% CI: 1.0-1.1). Male gender (IRR: 0.9, 95% CI: 0.8-0.9) had a negative association with ACP activity completion.

Conclusion: Several patient-specific and health system utilization factors were identified as predictors of ACP activity completion, which clinicians and policymakers could use to enhance ACP completion.