Mathematical model of repressive response to collective action and protest waves

Abstract

The intricate interplay between the state and society may foster opposition and prompt collective action as a mode of protest. When the state responds repressively to such collective action, it aims to undermine it escalating its costs. A mathematical model relating the repressive response to collective action, articulated through differential equations, facilitates a thorough analysis of their dynamic interaction. Modelling outcomes indicate that repressive regimes may exhibit sustained persistence, oscillatory patterns, or destabilization, potentially transitioning into alternative regimes. This modelling framework offers a means to discern the impact of diverse factors on the dynamics of repressive regimes and to provide modelling insight on the emergence of cycles of protest observed in different countries during certain periods of their history.