Identification of Potential Earthquake Source Zones in Areas of Recent Tectogenesis Based on Geological and Geomorphological Factors and Tools of Fuzzy Logic: The Greater Caucasus

Abstract

Sixteen morphometric relief parameters have been identified whose positive anomalies correspond with seismic areas in the Greater Caucasus. An analysis of four parameters which were considered to provide the most information using the γ-operator in fuzzy logic has enabled us to develop a scheme for an index of neotectonic activity that was used along with the results of computerized geodynamic simulation to identify zones of possible earthquake sources. The new approach does not require detailed information on present-day and paleo seismicity, hence can be used to deal with an analogous problem for territories whose seismotectonics is poorly known. We have demonstrated an interrelationship between recent deformations and regional seismicity, and the possibilities offered by the method of lineament analysis due to Yu.V. Nechaev (2010) for identification of active faults.