Sharp habitat shifts, evolutionary tipping points and rescue: Quantifying the perilous path of a specialist species towards a refugium in a changing environment

IF 1.2 4区 生物学 Q4 ECOLOGY
Léonard Dekens
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Specialist species thriving under specific environmental conditions in narrow geographic ranges are widely recognized as heavily threatened by climate deregulation. Many might rely on both their potential to adapt and to disperse towards a refugium to avoid extinction. It is thus crucial to understand the influence of environmental conditions on the unfolding process of adaptation. Here, I study the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a sexually reproducing specialist species in a two-patch quantitative genetic model with moving optima. Thanks to a separation of ecological and evolutionary time scales and the phase-line study of the selection gradient, I derive the critical environmental speed for persistence, which reflects how the existence of a refugium impacts extinction patterns and how it relates to the cost of dispersal. Moreover, the analysis provides key insights about the dynamics that arise on the path towards this refugium. I show that after an initial increase of population size, there exists a critical environmental speed above which the species crosses a tipping point, resulting into an abrupt habitat switch. In addition, when selection for local adaptation is strong, this habitat switch passes through an evolutionary “death valley”, leading to a phenomenon related to evolutionary rescue, which can promote extinction for lower environmental speeds than the critical one.
栖息地的急剧变化、进化临界点和拯救:量化专一物种在不断变化的环境中走向避难所的危险之路。
人们普遍认为,在狭窄地理范围内特定环境条件下繁衍生息的专门物种受到气候失调的严重威胁。许多物种可能既要依靠自身的适应潜力,又要依靠向避难所扩散来避免灭绝。因此,了解环境条件对适应过程的影响至关重要。在这里,我在一个具有移动最优值的双片段定量遗传模型中研究了一种有性繁殖的专性物种的生态进化动态。得益于生态和进化时间尺度的分离以及对选择梯度的相线研究,我得出了持久性的临界环境速度,它反映了避难所的存在如何影响灭绝模式,以及它与扩散成本之间的关系。此外,该分析还提供了关于在通往该庇护所的道路上出现的动态变化的关键见解。我的研究表明,在最初的种群数量增加之后,存在一个临界环境速度,超过这个速度,物种就会越过一个临界点,导致栖息地的突然转换。此外,当对局部适应性的选择很强时,这种生境转换会经过一个进化的 "死亡谷",从而导致一种与进化拯救有关的现象,这种现象会促使低于临界环境速度的物种灭绝。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Theoretical Population Biology
Theoretical Population Biology 生物-进化生物学
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
14.30%
发文量
43
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: An interdisciplinary journal, Theoretical Population Biology presents articles on theoretical aspects of the biology of populations, particularly in the areas of demography, ecology, epidemiology, evolution, and genetics. Emphasis is on the development of mathematical theory and models that enhance the understanding of biological phenomena. Articles highlight the motivation and significance of the work for advancing progress in biology, relying on a substantial mathematical effort to obtain biological insight. The journal also presents empirical results and computational and statistical methods directly impinging on theoretical problems in population biology.
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