Harvesting heterogeneity: Selective expertise versus machine learning.

Abstract

The heterogeneity of outcomes in behavioral research has long been perceived as a challenge for the validity of various theoretical models. More recently, however, researchers have started perceiving heterogeneity as something that needs to be not only acknowledged but also actively addressed, particularly in applied research. A serious challenge, however, is that classical psychological methods are not well suited for making practical recommendations when heterogeneous outcomes are expected. In this article, we argue that heterogeneity requires a separation between basic and applied behavioral methods, and between different types of behavioral expertise. We propose a novel framework for evaluating behavioral expertise and suggest that selective expertise can easily be automated via various machine learning methods. We illustrate the value of our framework via an empirical study of the preferences towards battery electric vehicles. Our results suggest that a basic multiarm bandit algorithm vastly outperforms human expertise in selecting the best interventions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).