The effects of HIV self-testing on HIV incidence and awareness of status among men who have sex with men in the United States: Insights from a novel compartmental model
Alex Viguerie , Chaitra Gopalappa , Cynthia M. Lyles , Paul G. Farnham
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background
The OraQuick In-Home HIV self-test represents a fast, inexpensive, and convenient method for users to assess their HIV status. If integrated thoughtfully into existing testing practices, accompanied by efficient pathways to formal diagnosis, self-testing could enhance both HIV awareness and reduce HIV incidence. However, currently available self-tests are less sensitive, particularly for recent infection, when compared to gold-standard laboratory tests. It is important to understand the impact if some portion of standard testing is replaced by self-tests. We used a compartmental model to evaluate the effects of self-testing in diverse scenarios among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States for the period 2020–2030, and to understand which scenarios maximize the advantages of self-testing.
Methods
We introduced a novel 4-compartment model for HIV self-testing. We employed the model under different screening rates, self-test proportions, and delays to diagnosis for those identified through self-tests to determine the potential effects of self-testing on HIV incidence and awareness of status when applied to the US MSM population. We studied scenarios in which self-tests supplement laboratory-based tests, with no replacement, and scenarios in which some replacement occurs. We also examined how future improvements in self-test sensitivity may affect our results.
Results
When HIV self-tests are supplemental rather than substitutes for laboratory-based testing, self-testing can decrease HIV incidence among MSM in the US by up to 10 % and increase awareness of status among MSM from 85 % to 91 % over a 10-year period, provided linkage to care and formal diagnosis occur promptly following a positive self-test (90 days or less). As self-tests replace a higher percentage laboratory-based testing algorithms, increases in overall testing rates were necessary to ensure reductions in HIV incidence. However, such needed increases were relatively small (under 10 % for prompt engagement in care and moderate levels of replacement). Improvements in self-test sensitivity and/or decreases in the detection period may further reduce any necessary increases in overall testing by up to 40 %.
Conclusions
If properly utilized, self-testing can provide significant long-term reductions to HIV incidence and improve awareness of HIV status. Ensuring that self-testing increases overall testing and that formal diagnosis and engagement in care occur promptly following a positive self-test are necessary to maximize the benefits of self-testing. Future improvements in self-test sensitivity and reductions in the detection period would further reduce HIV incidence and the potential risks associated with replacing laboratory tests with self-tests.
期刊介绍:
Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.