Martin Oliver Sailer, Dietmar Neubacher, Curtis Johnston, James Rogers, Matthew Wiens, Alejandro Pérez-Pitarch, Igor Tartakovsky, Jan Marquard, Lori M Laffel
{"title":"Pharmacometrics-Enhanced Bayesian Borrowing for Pediatric Extrapolation - A Case Study of the DINAMO Trial.","authors":"Martin Oliver Sailer, Dietmar Neubacher, Curtis Johnston, James Rogers, Matthew Wiens, Alejandro Pérez-Pitarch, Igor Tartakovsky, Jan Marquard, Lori M Laffel","doi":"10.1007/s43441-024-00707-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Bayesian borrowing analyses have an important role in the design and analysis of pediatric trials. This paper describes use of a prespecified Pharmacometrics Enhanced Bayesian Borrowing (PEBB) analysis that was conducted to overcome an expectation for reduced statistical power in the pediatric DINAMO trial due to a greater than expected variability in the primary endpoint. The DINAMO trial assessed the efficacy and safety of an empagliflozin dosing regimen versus placebo and linagliptin versus placebo on glycemic control (change in HbA1c over 26 weeks) in young people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Previously fitted pharmacokinetic and exposure-response models for empagliflozin and linagliptin based on available historical data in adult and pediatric patients with T2D were used to simulate participant data and derive the informative component of a Bayesian robust mixture prior distribution. External experts and representatives from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration provided recommendations to determine the effective sample size of the prior and the weight of the informative prior component. Separate exposure response-based Bayesian borrowing analyses for empagliflozin and linagliptin showed posterior mean and 95% credible intervals that were consistent with the trial results. Sensitivity analyses with a full range of alternative weights were also performed. The use of PEBB in this analysis combined advantages of mechanistic modeling of pharmacometric differences between adults and young people with T2D, with advantages of partial extrapolation through Bayesian dynamic borrowing. Our findings suggest that the described PEBB approach is a promising option to optimize the power for future pediatric trials.</p>","PeriodicalId":23084,"journal":{"name":"Therapeutic innovation & regulatory science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Therapeutic innovation & regulatory science","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s43441-024-00707-5","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"MEDICAL INFORMATICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Bayesian borrowing analyses have an important role in the design and analysis of pediatric trials. This paper describes use of a prespecified Pharmacometrics Enhanced Bayesian Borrowing (PEBB) analysis that was conducted to overcome an expectation for reduced statistical power in the pediatric DINAMO trial due to a greater than expected variability in the primary endpoint. The DINAMO trial assessed the efficacy and safety of an empagliflozin dosing regimen versus placebo and linagliptin versus placebo on glycemic control (change in HbA1c over 26 weeks) in young people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Previously fitted pharmacokinetic and exposure-response models for empagliflozin and linagliptin based on available historical data in adult and pediatric patients with T2D were used to simulate participant data and derive the informative component of a Bayesian robust mixture prior distribution. External experts and representatives from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration provided recommendations to determine the effective sample size of the prior and the weight of the informative prior component. Separate exposure response-based Bayesian borrowing analyses for empagliflozin and linagliptin showed posterior mean and 95% credible intervals that were consistent with the trial results. Sensitivity analyses with a full range of alternative weights were also performed. The use of PEBB in this analysis combined advantages of mechanistic modeling of pharmacometric differences between adults and young people with T2D, with advantages of partial extrapolation through Bayesian dynamic borrowing. Our findings suggest that the described PEBB approach is a promising option to optimize the power for future pediatric trials.
期刊介绍:
Therapeutic Innovation & Regulatory Science (TIRS) is the official scientific journal of DIA that strives to advance medical product discovery, development, regulation, and use through the publication of peer-reviewed original and review articles, commentaries, and letters to the editor across the spectrum of converting biomedical science into practical solutions to advance human health.
The focus areas of the journal are as follows:
Biostatistics
Clinical Trials
Product Development and Innovation
Global Perspectives
Policy
Regulatory Science
Product Safety
Special Populations