An update of the severe trauma scoring system using the Korean National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS) database

Abstract

Background

Various scoring systems are utilized to assess severe trauma patients, with one of the most commonly used tools being the International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score (ICISS) criteria derived from the Survival Risk Ratio (SRR) calculated using diagnostic codes. This study aimed to redefine the severe trauma scoring system in Korea based on the SRR for diagnostic codes, and subsequently evaluate its performance in predicting survival outcomes for trauma patients.

Methods

This study included trauma patients who visited Level 1 and 2 emergency departments (EDs) between January 2016 and December 2019, utilizing the Korean National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS) database. The primary outcome of this study was in-hospital mortality. The new SRR-2020 value was calculated for each of the 865 trauma diagnosis codes (Korean Standard Classification of Diseases [KCD-7] codes, 4-digit format), and the patient-specific ICISS-2020 value was derived by multiplying the corresponding SRR-2020 value based on patient diagnosis. We compared the predictive performance for in-hospital mortality between severe trauma patients with an ICISS <0.9 based on the newly developed ICISS-2020 version and those defined by the previously used ICISS-2015 version.

Results

A total of 3,841,122 patients were enrolled, with an in-hospital mortality rate of 0.5 %. Severe trauma patients with ICISS-2020 < 0.9 accounted for 5.3 % (204,897 cases) that was lower than ICISS-2015 < 0.9 accounting for 15.3 % (587,801 cases). Among the 20,619 in-hospital mortality cases, 81.4 % had ICISS-2020 < 0.9, and 88.6 % had ICISS-2015 < 0.9. When comparing predictive performance for in-hospital mortality between the two ICISS versions, ICISS-2020 showed higher accuracy (0.95), specificity (0.95), positive predictive value (PPV) (0.08), positive likelihood ratio (LR+) (16.53), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (0.96) than ICISS-2015 for accuracy (0.85), sensitivity (0.88), specificity (0.85), PPV (0.03), LR+ (5.94), and AUROC (0.94). However, regarding sensitivity, ICISS-2020 < 0.9 showed a lower value of 0.81 compared to ICISS-2015 < 0.9, which was 0.88. The negative predictive value (NPV) was 1.00 for both versions.

Conclusions

The newly developed ICISS-2020, utilizing a nationwide emergency patient database, demonstrated relatively good performance (accuracy, specificity, PPV, LR+, and AUROC) in predicting survival outcomes for patients with trauma.