{"title":"Development and Validation of a Nocturnal Hypoglycaemia Risk Model for Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.","authors":"Chen Gong, Tingting Cai, Ying Wang, Xuelian Xiong, Yunfeng Zhou, Tingting Zhou, Qi Sun, Huiqun Huang","doi":"10.1002/nop2.70055","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Aim: </strong>To develop and test different machine learning algorithms for predicting nocturnal hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>A retrospective study.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collected data from dynamic blood glucose monitoring of patients with T2DM admitted to the Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism at a hospital in Shanghai, China, from November 2020 to January 2022. Patients undergone the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) for ≥ 24 h were included in this study. Logistic regression, random forest and light gradient boosting machine algorithms were employed, and the models were validated and compared using AUC, accuracy, specificity, recall rate, precision, F1 score and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 4015 continuous glucose-monitoring data points from 440 patients were included, and 28 variables were selected to build the risk prediction model. The 440 patients had an average age of 62.7 years. Approximately 48.2% of the patients were female and 51.8% were male. Nocturnal hypoglycaemia appeared in 573 (14.30%) of 4015 continuous glucose monitoring data. The light gradient boosting machine model demonstrated the highest predictive performances: AUC (0.869), specificity (0.802), accuracy (0.801), precision (0.409), recall rate (0.797), F1 score (0.255) and Kolmogorov (0.603). The selected predictive factors included time below the target glucose range, duration of diabetes, insulin use before bed and dynamic blood glucose monitoring parameters from the previous day.</p><p><strong>Patient or public contribution: </strong>No Patient or Public Contribution.</p>","PeriodicalId":48570,"journal":{"name":"Nursing Open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11449968/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nursing Open","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/nop2.70055","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"NURSING","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Aim: To develop and test different machine learning algorithms for predicting nocturnal hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.
Design: A retrospective study.
Methods: We collected data from dynamic blood glucose monitoring of patients with T2DM admitted to the Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism at a hospital in Shanghai, China, from November 2020 to January 2022. Patients undergone the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) for ≥ 24 h were included in this study. Logistic regression, random forest and light gradient boosting machine algorithms were employed, and the models were validated and compared using AUC, accuracy, specificity, recall rate, precision, F1 score and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.
Results: A total of 4015 continuous glucose-monitoring data points from 440 patients were included, and 28 variables were selected to build the risk prediction model. The 440 patients had an average age of 62.7 years. Approximately 48.2% of the patients were female and 51.8% were male. Nocturnal hypoglycaemia appeared in 573 (14.30%) of 4015 continuous glucose monitoring data. The light gradient boosting machine model demonstrated the highest predictive performances: AUC (0.869), specificity (0.802), accuracy (0.801), precision (0.409), recall rate (0.797), F1 score (0.255) and Kolmogorov (0.603). The selected predictive factors included time below the target glucose range, duration of diabetes, insulin use before bed and dynamic blood glucose monitoring parameters from the previous day.
Patient or public contribution: No Patient or Public Contribution.
期刊介绍:
Nursing Open is a peer reviewed open access journal that welcomes articles on all aspects of nursing and midwifery practice, research, education and policy. We aim to publish articles that contribute to the art and science of nursing and which have a positive impact on health either locally, nationally, regionally or globally