Warming events and their causes at the Bering Sea section B in summer of 1999–2019

Abstract

Based on hydrological data for the Bering Sea from 1999 to 2019 during the Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions (CHINAREs), along with oceanographic and meteorological data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we investigated trends in summer at the Bering Sea section B over the past 20 years and their underlying causes. The results revealed a pronounced rise in temperature at the Bering Sea section B in 2003, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019, suggesting a shift towards a new phase of warmth starting in 2014. In warm years (2003, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019), the mean maximum temperature in the upper layer in the basin north of 57°N and on the continental shelf were roughly 2.7 °C, 2.6 °C higher than that in cold years (1999, 2008, 2010, and 2012). Additionally, the mean minimum temperature of the cold water in the middle layer in the basin was roughly 0.7 °C higher in the warm years compared to the cold years. This difference between the warm and cold years was evident in the heat content: the average heat content in the upper to middle layers in the basin north of 57°N and on the continental shelf were about 1.2 and 0.9 GJ/m² higher, respectively, in the warm years than the cold years. However, there was a modest warming trend in the basin south of 57°N, and the temperature in the mid-layer on the continental shelf showed year-to-year stability, in contrast to the significant warming observed elsewhere. Further study suggested that temperature fluctuation in the basin was closely tied to seasonal 2-m air temperature. In addition, the southern basin, divided at 57°N, experienced larger positive or negative anomalous wind stress curl compared to the northern basin. This discrepancy resulted in differing causes of temperature variation between the two regions. Temperature change in the upper layer on the continental shelf was attributed to an increase in cumulative net heat flux resulting from reduced sea ice, while the temperature in the middle layer on the continental shelf was limited by the enhanced density gradient between the upper and middle layer caused by melt ice, preventing significant warming. Overall, the thermal state for the Bering Sea section B was influenced by a combination of factors, including net heat flux, sea ice, and atmospheric conditions, contributing to the year-to-year variation characterized by alternating cold and warm regimes.