Impact of climate on varicella distribution in Bulgaria (2009-2018).

IF 1.1 4区医学 Q4 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Central European journal of public health Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.21101/cejph.a7792

Tatina Todorova

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives: Temperature is the most important environmental variable associated with the varicella frequency across the world. The present study compares the incidence of varicella in the districts of Bulgaria against some climatic factors and tries to find environmental variables which account for the differences in the varicella distribution observed among the Bulgarian districts.

Methods: The 28 Bulgarian districts were used as units of observation and their average 10-year varicella incidence (2009-2018) was tested for correlation with the standard bioclimatic variables of WorldClim, version 2.

Results: The WorldClim estimates for the annual mean temperature, the maximal temperature of the warmest month, the minimal temperature of the coldest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and the solar radiation inversely and not significantly correlated with the average 10-year varicella frequency. The precipitation of the warmest quarter and the wind speed correlated positively and also not significantly. Only the mean temperature of the driest quarter correlates significantly with the incidence at district level (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of -0.45, p = 0.02). The mean of average 10-year varicella incidence rates among districts with driest quarter during the winter (January, February, March) was 387.6 ± 114.1, while among districts with driest quarter during the summer/autumn (July, August, September or August, September, October) 283.3 ± 102.1 (p = 0.02, ANOVA test).

Conclusions: Dry winter and/or wet summer appear as significant determinants for the fluctuant spread of varicella infection in Bulgaria.

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气候对保加利亚水痘分布的影响（2009-2018 年）。

目的：温度是与世界各地水痘发病率相关的最重要的环境变量。本研究将保加利亚各地区的水痘发病率与一些气候因素进行比较，并试图找到导致保加利亚各地区水痘分布差异的环境变量：方法：以保加利亚的 28 个地区为观察单位，测试其 10 年（2009-2018 年）水痘平均发病率与 WorldClim 第 2 版标准生物气候变量的相关性：WorldClim估计的年平均气温、最暖月份的最高气温、最冷月份的最低气温、最冷季度的平均气温和太阳辐射与10年平均水痘发病率成反比，且无显著相关性。最热季度的降水量和风速呈正相关，但也不显著。只有最干旱季度的平均气温与地区一级的发病率有明显相关性（斯皮尔曼等级相关系数为-0.45，p = 0.02）。冬季（1 月、2 月、3 月）最干燥季度的地区 10 年水痘平均发病率平均值为 387.6 ± 114.1，而夏季/秋季（7 月、8 月、9 月或 8 月、9 月、10 月）最干燥季度的地区为 283.3 ± 102.1（p = 0.02，方差分析检验）：结论：干燥的冬季和/或潮湿的夏季似乎是保加利亚水痘感染波动传播的重要决定因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Central European journal of public health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal publishes original articles on disease prevention and health protection, environmental impacts on health, the role of nutrition in health promotion, results of population health studies and critiques of specific health issues including intervention measures such as vaccination and its effectiveness. The review articles are targeted at providing up-to-date information in the sphere of public health. The Journal is geographically targeted at the European region but will accept specialised articles from foreign sources that contribute to public health issues also applicable to the European cultural milieu.