Ji-Hoon Choi, Sung-Hee Song, Hongryul Kim, Jongwoo Kim, Heesun Park, JaeHu Jeon, JoongSik Hong, Hye Bin Gwag, Sung Ho Lee, Jaichan Lee, Soo Jin Cho, Seung-Jung Park, Young Keun On, Ju Youn Kim, Kyoung-Min Park
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: We hypothesized that analysis of serial ECGs could predict new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) more accurately than analysis of a single ECG by detecting the subtle cardiac remodeling that occurs immediately before AF occurrence. Our aim in this study was to compare the performance of 2 types of machine learning (ML) algorithms.
Methods and results: Standard 12-lead ECGs of patients selected by cardiologists between January 2010 and May 2021 were used for ML model development. Two ML models (single ECG and serial ECG) were developed using a light gradient boosting machine-learning algorithm. Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and F1 score. We trained the ML models on 415 964 ECGs from 176 090 patients. When testing the 2 ML models using external validation data sets, the performance of the serial-ML model was significantly better than that of the single-ML model for predicting new-onset AF (single- versus serial-ML model: sensitivity 0.744 versus 0.810; specificity 0.742 versus 0.822; accuracy 0.743 versus 0.816; F1 score 0.743 versus 0.815; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.812 versus 0.880; P<0.001). The Shapley Additive Explanations analysis ranked P-wave duration and amplitude among the top 10 ECG parameters.
Conclusions: An ML model based on serial ECGs from an individual had greater ability to predict new-onset AF than the ML model based on a single ECG. P-wave morphologies were associated with future AF prediction.
期刊介绍:
As an Open Access journal, JAHA - Journal of the American Heart Association is rapidly and freely available, accelerating the translation of strong science into effective practice.
JAHA is an authoritative, peer-reviewed Open Access journal focusing on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease. JAHA provides a global forum for basic and clinical research and timely reviews on cardiovascular disease and stroke. As an Open Access journal, its content is free on publication to read, download, and share, accelerating the translation of strong science into effective practice.