Sepsis mortality prediction with Machine Learning Tecniques

Abstract

Objective

To develop a sepsis death classification model based on machine learning techniques for patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

Design

Cross-sectional descriptive study.

Setting

The Intensive Care Units (ICUs) of three Hospitals from Murcia (Spain) and patients from the MIMIC III open-access database.

Patients

180 patients diagnosed with sepsis in the ICUs of three hospitals and a total of 4559 patients from the MIMIC III database.

Main variables of interest

Age, weight, heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, lactate levels, partial oxygen saturation, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, pH, urine, and potassium levels.

Results

A random forest classification model was calculated using the local and MIMIC III databases. The sensitivity of the model of our database, considering all the variables classified as important by the random forest, was 95.45%, the specificity was 100%, the accuracy was 96.77%, and an AUC of 95%. . In the case of the model based on the MIMIC III database, the sensitivity was 97.55%, the specificity was 100%, and the precision was 98.28%, with an AUC of 97.3%.

Conclusions

According to random forest classification in both databases, lactate levels, urine output and variables related to acid.base equilibrium were the most important variable in mortality due to sepsis in the ICU. The potassium levels were more critical in the MIMIC III database than the local database.