[Predictability of anastomotic leaks in visceral surgery].

Abstract

Anastomotic leakage in visceral surgery is associated with a large number of known and also unknown or even unmeasurable parameters. Furthermore, the associations between the individual factors are intertwined and complex. According to current data a preoperative prediction is not reliably possible and should be distinguished from intraoperative or postoperative prediction models. Most studies on this topic do not exceed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70. A thorough understanding of statistics and prediction models is necessary to correctly interpret the published works. Due to the relatively low incidence rate of anastomotic leakage from a statistical point of view, large datasets are required for adequate prediction. Multimodal data and complex algorithms can potentially handle big data more accurately and improve predictability; however, these models have so far not been applied in the clinical routine.