Source-specific probabilistic health risk assessment of dust PAHs in urban parks based on positive matrix factorization and Monte Carlo simulation.

Abstract

Understanding the health risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in dust from city parks and prioritizing sources for control are essential for public health and pollution management. The combination of Source-specific and Monte Carlo not only reduces management costs, but also improves the accuracy of assessments. To evaluate the sources of PAHs in urban park dust and the possible health risks caused by different sources, dust samples from 13 popular parks in Kaifeng City were analyzed for PAHs using gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer (GC-MS). The results showed that the surface dust PAH content in the study area ranged from 332.34 µg·kg^-1 to 7823.03 µg·kg^-1, with a mean value of 1756.59 µg·kg^-1. Nemerow Composite Pollution Index in the study area ranged from 0.32 to 14.41, with a mean of 2.24, indicating that the overall pollution warrants attention. Four pollution sources were identified using the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model: transportation source, transportation-coal and biomass combustion source, coke oven emission source, and petroleum source, with contributions of 33.74%, 25.59%, 22.14%, and 18.54%, respectively. The Monte Carlo cancer risk simulation results indicated that park dust PAHs pose a potential cancer risk to all three populations (children, adult male and adult female). Additionally, the cancer risk for children was generally higher than that for adult males and females, with transportation sources being the main contributor to the carcinogenic risk. Lastly, sensitivity analyses results showed that the toxic equivalent concentration (CS) is the parameter contributing the most to carcinogenic risk, followed by Exposure duration (ED).