Development and validation of a prediction model for rebound hyperbilirubinemia: a Chinese neonatal cohort study.

Abstract

Background: Rebound hyperbilirubinemia (HBB) is still present in as high as 10% of newborn babies. However, the applicability of established prediction models for rebound HBB to Chinese newborns is unclear. This study aimed to establish a model to predict HBB rebound after phototherapy among Chinese neonates.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 1,035 HBB infants receiving phototherapy. Rebound HBB was defined as total serum bilirubin (TSB) returning to or above the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) phototherapy threshold within 72 hours after the end of phototherapy. The predictive effects of previously published two- and three-variable scores were verified. Neonates were randomly assigned in a 6:4 ratio to the training (n=621) group and the testing (n=414) group. All variables in the training set were used to select predictors by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. The internal validation of the prediction model was performed using the testing set. The model's predictive performance was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, each with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves were constructed to evaluate the discrimination ability and fitting effect of the prediction model, respectively.

Results: Rebound HBB was observed in 210 patients (20.3%). The AUC for the two- and three-variable scores were 0.498 (95% CI: 0.455-0.540) and 0.498 (95% CI: 0.457-0.540), respectively. Predictive factors for the risk of rebound HBB included formula feeding (>3 times/day), standard phototherapy irradiation time, TSB levels and age at termination of phototherapy, neonatal weight, and differences between TSB levels at the phototherapy termination and phototherapy threshold. The prediction model's AUC was 0.935 (95% CI: 0.911-0.958), the sensitivity was 0.880 (95% CI: 0.809-0.950), the specificity was 0.831 (95% CI: 0.790-0.871), and the accuracy was 0.841 (95% CI: 0.805-0.876).

Conclusions: The established model performed well in predicting rebound risk among Chinese infants with HBB, which may be beneficial in treating and managing HBB in infants.