Nomogram based on lymphocyte-associated inflammatory indexes predicts portal vein thrombosis after splenectomy with esophagogastric devascularization.

Abstract

Objective: The relationship between lymphocyte-associated inflammatory indices and portal vein thrombosis (PVT) following splenectomy combined with esophagogastric devascularization (SED) is currently unclear. This study aims to investigate the association between these inflammatory indices and PVT, and to develop a nomogram based on these indices to predict the risk of PVT after SED, providing an early warning tool for clinical practice.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 131 cirrhotic patients who underwent SED at Lanzhou University's Second Hospital between January 2014 and January 2024. Independent risk factors for PVT were identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and the best variables were selected using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to construct the nomogram. The model's predictive performance was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration, decision, and clinical impact curves, with bootstrap resampling used for internal validation.

Results: The final model incorporated five variables: splenic vein diameter (SVD), D-Dimer, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and red cell distribution width-to-lymphocyte ratio (RLR), achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.807, demonstrating high predictive accuracy. Calibration and decision curves demonstrated good calibration and significant clinical benefits. The model exhibited good stability through internal validation.

Conclusion: The nomogram model based on lymphocyte-associated inflammatory indices effectively predicts the risk of portal vein thrombosis after SED, demonstrating high accuracy and clinical utility. Further validation in larger, multicenter studies is needed.