Quantitative risk analysis of road transportation of hazardous materials in coastal areas

Abstract

Given the complex climate conditions in coastal areas and their role as key transportation hubs for hazardous chemicals, this study proposes a method to quantitatively and comprehensively evaluate transportation risks. Initially, accident data were analyzed to identify risk factors from five aspects: human, vehicle, materials, environment, and management, based on system safety theory. Subsequently, a risk analysis model was developed using Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, interpretive structural model theory, and Bayesian theory to quantitatively assess accident risk levels. The model was applied to a case involving a hazardous chemical accident on a cross-sea bridge, where Bayesian backward reasoning was used to analyze the sensitivity and importance of risk factors. This approach facilitated the key risk factors affecting the safety of hazardous chemical transportation systems. Notably, the study incorporated scenarios involving hazardous material transport vehicles crossing sea bridges into the risk assessment framework, offering valuable insights for management authorities. It also considered the impact of strong side winds-a factor often overlooked-in hazardous material transport. The validation process demonstrated that the method accurately quantifies the risk of hazardous chemical transportation and identifies the key factors influencing accident occurrence. The research highlights that strong gusts of wind significantly impact safety, and human factors are crucial in the overall risk system.