A variant-informed decision support system for tackling COVID-19: a transfer learning and multi-attribute decision-making approach

Abstract

The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, characterized by its extensive societal, economic, and environmental challenges, escalated with the emergence of variants of concern (VOCs) in 2020. Governments, grappling with the unpredictable evolution of VOCs, faced the need for agile decision support systems to safeguard nations effectively. This article introduces the Variant-Informed Decision Support System (VIDSS), designed to dynamically adapt to each variant of concern’s unique characteristics. Utilizing multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) techniques, VIDSS assesses a country’s performance by considering improvements relative to its past state and comparing it with others. The study incorporates transfer learning, leveraging insights from forecast models of previous VOCs to enhance predictions for future variants. This proactive approach harnesses historical data, contributing to more accurate forecasting amid evolving COVID-19 challenges. Results reveal that the VIDSS framework, through rigorous K-fold cross-validation, achieves robust predictive accuracy, with neural network models significantly benefiting from transfer learning. The proposed hybrid MADM approach integrated approaches yield insightful scores for each country, highlighting positive and negative criteria influencing COVID-19 spread. Additionally, feature importance, illustrated through SHAP plots, varies across variants, underscoring the evolving nature of the pandemic. Notably, vaccination rates, intensive care unit (ICU) patient numbers, and weekly hospital admissions consistently emerge as critical features, guiding effective pandemic responses. These findings demonstrate that leveraging past VOC data significantly improves future variant predictions, offering valuable insights for policymakers to optimize strategies and allocate resources effectively. VIDSS thus stands as a pivotal tool in navigating the complexities of COVID-19, providing dynamic, data-driven decision support in a continually evolving landscape.