Poisson and Gamma Model Marginalisation and Marginal Likelihood calculation using Moment-generating Functions

Abstract

We present a new analytical method to derive the likelihood function that has the population of parameters marginalised out in Bayesian hierarchical models. This method is also useful to find the marginal likelihoods in Bayesian models or in random-effect linear mixed models. The key to this method is to take high-order (sometimes fractional) derivatives of the prior moment-generating function if particular existence and differentiability conditions hold. In particular, this analytical method assumes that the likelihood is either Poisson or gamma. Under Poisson likelihoods, the observed Poisson count determines the order of the derivative. Under gamma likelihoods, the shape parameter, which is assumed to be known, determines the order of the fractional derivative. We also present some examples validating this new analytical method.