Predicting offensive sector entry during transition moments in soccer

Abstract

Transitions, rapid attacks after regaining possession, are a potent weapon, yet their lower frequency compared to organized attacks highlights a need for understanding factors that influence their success, particularly regarding offensive sector entry. This study investigates factors influencing the success of transitions, with a specific focus on predicting their ability to penetrate the opponent’s offensive sector. We analyzed 1911 ball recoveries from the 2018 to 2019 Greek SuperLeague. Chi-squared tests and binary logistic regression were employed to examine the influence of recovery type, number of defenders, passing patterns (including penetrative passes), and other variables on successful transitions. Our findings reveal that the likelihood of entering the offensive sector significantly increased when the ball was recovered in advanced areas, against fewer defenders, involved a high proportion of penetrative passes, and had a longer offensive sequence duration. This model provides a framework for predicting offensive sector entry during transitions, offering valuable insights for coaches seeking to optimize training drills and maximize transitional effectiveness.