Comparative analysis of aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency in the Russian stock market during the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine conflict (RUC)

Abstract

Purpose

The primary purpose of this research is to identify and compare the multifractal behavior of different sectors during these crises and analyze their implications on market efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

We used multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to analyze stock returns from various sectors of the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) in between two significant periods. The COVID-19 pandemic (January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021) and the Russia–Ukraine conflict (RUC) (January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023). This method witnesses multifractality in financial time series data and tests the persistency and efficiency levels of each sector to provide meaningful insights.

Findings

Results showcased persistent multifractal behavior across all sectors in between the COVID-19 pandemic and the RUC, spotting heightened arbitrage opportunities in the MOEX. The pandemic reported a greater speculative behavior, with the telecommunication and oil and gas sectors exhibiting reduced efficiency, recommending abnormal return potential. In contrast, financials and metals and mining sectors displayed increased efficiency, witnessing strong economic performance. Findings may enhance understanding of market dynamics during crises and provide strategic insights for the MOEX’s investors.

Practical implications

Understanding the multifractal properties and efficiency of different sectors during crisis periods is of paramount importance for investors and policymakers. The identified arbitrage opportunities and efficiency variations can aid investors in optimizing their investment strategies during such critical market conditions. Policymakers can also leverage these insights to implement measures that bolster economic stability and development during crisis periods.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by providing a comprehensive analysis of multifractal properties and efficiency in the context of the MOEX during two major crises. The application of MF-DFA to sectoral stock returns during these events adds originality to the study. The findings offer valuable implications for practitioners, researchers and policymakers seeking to navigate financial markets during turbulent times and enhance overall market resilience.