Public control of coal resources of the United States’ Powder River Basin for a managed decarbonization transition

J Mijin Cha and Emily Grubert
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Abstract

The United States (US) has set aggressive targets for reaching a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050. Reaching these goals will require both rapid expansion of zero- and negative-carbon infrastructure and a phase-out of unabated fossil fuel infrastructure. New subsidy and regulatory actions focus on eliminating coal emissions at the point of consumption either through carbon capture and storage (CCS) or coal-fired power plant retirement. Yet, these pathways have opposite implications for coal production: CCS is coal intensive, while coal retirement is not. Despite a record of chaotic and harmful transition and significant social scientific research suggesting better outcomes from managed, coordinated decline, these mechanisms rely on uncoordinated private decision making by mine and plant owners. Coal mining has rapidly declined since peak production in 2008. Production has dropped by half; bankruptcies are the norm; and coal mine and power plant host communities have experienced highly disruptive decline as a result of this unmanaged transition. Given this history, we argue the current market-based, plant-driven governance approach could worsen transition challenges, including potentially stranding costly CCS investments. We argue that the US should complement its extensive investments in technology demonstrations with innovative governance demonstrations to facilitate a just energy transition. Specifically, we argue that the Powder River Basin, which is the US’ largest coal basin and consists primarily of federally leased coal, should be brought under public control for managed decline both to meet emissions reduction targets and advance a just energy transition.
对美国粉河盆地煤炭资源的公共控制,实现有管理的去碳化过渡
美国制定了积极的目标,到 2035 年实现电力部门无碳污染,到 2050 年实现净零碳经济。要实现这些目标,既需要迅速扩大零碳和负碳基础设施,也需要逐步淘汰有增无减的化石燃料基础设施。新的补贴和监管措施侧重于通过碳捕集与封存(CCS)或燃煤电厂退役,在消费点消除煤炭排放。然而,这些途径对煤炭生产的影响恰恰相反:碳捕集与封存需要大量煤炭,而燃煤电厂退役则不需要大量煤炭。尽管有混乱和有害过渡的记录,而且大量社会科学研究表明,有管理、有协调的衰退会带来更好的结果,但这些机制依赖于煤矿和发电厂业主不协调的私人决策。自 2008 年产量达到峰值以来,煤炭开采已迅速衰退。产量下降了一半;破产成为常态;煤矿和发电厂所在社区因这种无管理的转型而经历了极具破坏性的衰退。鉴于这段历史,我们认为目前以市场为基础、以电厂为导向的管理方法可能会加剧转型挑战,包括可能搁浅成本高昂的 CCS 投资。我们认为,美国应通过创新治理示范来补充其在技术示范方面的广泛投资,以促进公正的能源转型。具体而言,我们认为,美国最大的煤炭盆地--粉河盆地(Powder River Basin)主要由联邦政府租用的煤炭组成,应将其置于公共控制之下,对其衰退进行管理,以实现减排目标并推进公正的能源转型。
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