Trading in Turbulent Times: Unravelling the Interplay between Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics in Russian Mineral Resource Supply

IF 1.1 Q4 BUSINESS
Md. Monirul Islam, Kazi Sohag
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Abstract

Trade policy plays a pivotal role in shaping import and export volumes within the global economy. However, the escalation of geopolitical tensions has posed significant challenges to the smooth flow of mineral resource trade. This study aims to analyse the consequences of global trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and various measures of geopolitical risk (GPR), including terror threats, war threats and nuclear threats (NCT), on Russian mineral exports (MEX). The analysis covers the period from January 2013 to December 2021. By employing sophisticated quantile regression methodologies, such as the cross-quantilogram (CQ) and cross-spectral quantile coherency (CQC) techniques, this study uncovers a compelling interaction between TPU and Russian MEX across different market conditions. Interestingly, TPU exerts a significantly positive impact on the export volumes of Russian mineral resources. In contrast, the presence of GPRs, particularly warfare and terrorism, proves to be detrimental to MEX during bullish market phases across various memory horizons. Surprisingly, NCT stimulates mineral trade during bearish market conditions, both in monthly and annual timeframes. These findings remain robust and consistent even when the CQC technique is employed. In light of these pressing geopolitical challenges, this study underscores the importance of developing sustainable mineral trade policies that foster enhanced global cohesion. It is crucial to address these challenges effectively to ensure the smooth and efficient flow of mineral resources in the international trade landscape.JEL Codes: C22, F13, F14, P28, Q21, Q27
动荡时期的贸易:解读俄罗斯矿产资源供应中贸易政策不确定性与地缘政治之间的相互作用
贸易政策在影响全球经济的进出口量方面发挥着举足轻重的作用。然而,地缘政治紧张局势的升级给矿产资源贸易的顺畅流动带来了重大挑战。本研究旨在分析全球贸易政策不确定性(TPU)和包括恐怖威胁、战争威胁和核威胁(NCT)在内的各种地缘政治风险(GPR)对俄罗斯矿产出口(MEX)的影响。分析时间跨度为 2013 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月。通过采用复杂的量子回归方法,如交叉量子图(CQ)和交叉谱量子一致性(CQC)技术,本研究揭示了在不同市场条件下,TPU 和俄罗斯 MEX 之间令人信服的相互作用。有趣的是,TPU 对俄罗斯矿产资源的出口量产生了显著的积极影响。与此相反,在不同的记忆范围内,GPRs(尤其是战争和恐怖主义)的存在证明在市场看涨阶段不利于 MEX。令人惊讶的是,无论是在月度还是年度时间范围内,NCT 在市场看跌时都会刺激矿产贸易。即使采用 CQC 技术,这些研究结果仍保持稳健和一致。鉴于这些紧迫的地缘政治挑战,本研究强调了制定可持续矿产贸易政策、促进增强全球凝聚力的重要性。有效应对这些挑战,确保矿产资源在国际贸易中的顺畅高效流动至关重要:C22, F13, F14, P28, Q21, Q27
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
37
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