Prediction of discharge in a tidal river using the LSTM-based sequence-to-sequence models

Abstract

The complexity of river-tide interaction poses a significant challenge in predicting discharge in tidal rivers. Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks excel in processing and predicting crucial events with extended intervals and time delays in time series data. Additionally, the sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) model, known for handling temporal relationships, adapting to variable-length sequences, effectively capturing historical information, and accommodating various influencing factors, emerges as a robust and flexible tool in discharge forecasting. In this study, we introduce the application of LSTM-based Seq2Seq models for the first time in forecasting the discharge of a tidal reach of the Changjiang River (Yangtze River) Estuary. This study focuses on discharge forecasting using three key input characteristics: flow velocity, water level, and discharge, which means the structure of multiple input and single output is adopted. The experiment used the discharge data of the whole year of 2020, of which the first 80% is used as the training set, and the last 20% is used as the test set. This means that the data covers different tidal cycles, which helps to test the forecasting effect of different models in different tidal cycles and different runoff. The experimental results indicate that the proposed models demonstrate advantages in long-term, mid-term, and short-term discharge forecasting. The Seq2Seq models improved by 6%–60% and 5%–20% of the relative standard deviation compared to the harmonic analysis models and improved back propagation neural network models in discharge prediction, respectively. In addition, the relative accuracy of the Seq2Seq model is 1% to 3% higher than that of the LSTM model. Analytical assessment of the prediction errors shows that the Seq2Seq models are insensitive to the forecast lead time and they can capture characteristic values such as maximum flood tide flow and maximum ebb tide flow in the tidal cycle well. This indicates the significance of the Seq2Seq models.