Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

IF 2.5 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Communications Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI:10.1088/2515-7620/ad7351

Derrick K Danso and Christina M Patricola

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Abstract

In this study, we investigated whether and how the storm surge induced by Hurricane Katrina could change if it occurs in a future warmer climate, and the sensitivity of the changes to atmospheric forcing resolution. Climate model simulations of Hurricane Katrina at 27 km, 4.5 km, and 3 km resolutions were used to drive storm surge simulations in historical and future climates using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. We found that peak surge height increased significantly in the future with all forcing resolutions. However, the future projection is 22% greater in the 3 km forcing, typical of regional climate models, compared to the 27 km forcing, typical of state-of-the-art global climate models. Additionally, the spatial extent of the future change is highly sensitive to forcing resolution, extending most broadly under the 27 km forcing. Furthermore, we found that storm surge duration decreases in the future with all forcing resolutions due to increasing TC translation speed and decreasing ocean lifetime. However, the future change in the surge duration is sensitive to the forcing resolution, decreasing by 31% in the 27 km forcing and 6% in the 3 km forcing.

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卡特里娜飓风风暴潮的未来预测以及对气象强迫分辨率的敏感性

在这项研究中，我们研究了如果卡特里娜飓风在未来气候变暖的情况下发生，飓风引起的风暴潮是否会发生变化以及如何变化，并研究了变化对大气强迫分辨率的敏感性。使用 ADvanced CIRCulation（ADCIRC）模型，以 27 千米、4.5 千米和 3 千米分辨率对卡特里娜飓风进行气候模型模拟，以驱动历史和未来气候下的风暴潮模拟。我们发现，在所有强迫分辨率下，未来的峰值浪涌高度都会显著增加。然而，与最先进的全球气候模式的典型参数 27 千米相比，区域气候模式的典型参数 3 千米的未来预测值要高出 22%。此外，未来变化的空间范围对模拟分辨率非常敏感，在 27 千米模拟分辨率下变化范围最广。此外，我们还发现，由于热带气旋平移速度的增加和海洋寿命的缩短，未来风暴潮持续时间在所有强迫分辨率下都会缩短。然而，未来风暴潮持续时间的变化对强迫分辨率非常敏感，在 27 千米强迫条件下减少了 31%，在 3 千米强迫条件下减少了 6%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Environmental Research Communications ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

136