Prediction of Market Share of Different Vehicle Powertrains on Interprovincial Highways amid the Development of Urban Agglomerations

Abstract

In the coordinated development of urban agglomerations in China, inter-city connections within urban agglomerations have been gradually strengthened, with more interprovincial highways built. Given the complex geological conditions, interprovincial highways often require tunnels. The construction of tunnel ventilation facilities needs to take into account the types of vehicle, traffic flows, and the market share of different vehicle powertrains using the highways. This paper aims to develop a method to predict the future market share of the powertrains of different types of vehicle on the interprovincial highway. The paper builds a policy cluster by analyzing the regional policies for new energy vehicles and then builds a parameter cluster by summarizing industry reports, expert opinion, and policy clusters to predict the market share of different vehicle types categorized by powertrains. Finally, based on the historical vehicle stock data, and using vehicle sales and scrappage rate models, the paper builds a future stock cluster to estimate the annual stock share of different vehicle powertrains up to 2045. The paper applies the method to the interprovincial highway S7 in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. It obtains the future trend of the market share of the powertrains of different vehicle types on S7 in the target year, validating the model. The results show that the share of new energy vehicles on the S7 highway will increase gradually until 2025. Electric vehicles will dominate the growth, with light trucks forming the highest proportion, followed by cars, and finally buses and heavy trucks.