Variabilities in the estimate of 100-year return period wave height in the Indian shelf seas

IF 1.3 4区 地球科学 Q4 OCEANOGRAPHY
Subal Vinayan, V. Sanil Kumar, R. Sajeev
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Exploring the variability in design wave heights through extreme value analysis is crucial for understanding extreme oceanographic conditions and is paramount for the safe design and operation of offshore structures. This research delves into a comprehensive analysis of wave height variability in the Indian shelf seas, focusing on wave heights for a 100-year return period at 30 locations using 42 years of reanalysis data. The study employs the Generalized Extreme Value distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), utilizing the annual maxima approach with three methods: maximum likelihood, probability-weighted moments, and moments of probability scale. The GPD Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach is explored with thresholds estimated using various (91 to 99) percentiles, alongside a graphical approach utilizing threshold determination through mean residual life (MRL) plots. Results indicate that the GPD POT approach, particularly when employing thresholds derived from MRL plots, outperforms other methods. Thresholds obtained by MRL method closely align with the thresholds obtained through the 99 percentile for all locations in the Arabian Sea. This investigation not only enhances our understanding of the dynamic wave processes in the Indian shelf seas but also underscores the efficacy of specific statistical distributions and approaches in the evaluation of design wave heights.

Abstract Image

印度大陆架海域 100 年重现期波浪高度估算的变异性
通过极值分析探索设计波高的变化对于了解极端海洋条件至关重要,对于近海结构的安全设计和运行也至关重要。本研究利用 42 年的再分析数据,对印度大陆架海域的波高变化进行了全面分析,重点研究了 30 个地点 100 年重现期的波高。研究采用了广义极值分布和广义帕累托分布 (GPD),利用年最大值法,并使用了三种方法:最大似然法、概率加权矩法和概率标度矩法。GPD 峰值超过阈值 (POT) 方法是利用不同的(91 到 99)百分位数估算阈值,同时采用图形方法,通过平均残余寿命 (MRL) 图确定阈值。结果表明,GPD POT 方法,尤其是在采用从 MRL 图中得出的阈值时,优于其他方法。通过 MRL 方法获得的阈值与通过阿拉伯海所有地点的 99 百分位数获得的阈值非常接近。这项调查不仅加深了我们对印度大陆架海域动态波浪过程的了解,还强调了特定统计分布和方法在评估设计波高方面的功效。
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来源期刊
Journal of Oceanography
Journal of Oceanography 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
13.00%
发文量
42
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Oceanography is the official journal of the Oceanographic Society of Japan and open to all oceanographers in the world. The main aim of the journal is to promote understandings of ocean systems from various aspects including physical, chemical, biological, geological oceanography as well as paleoceanography, etc. The journal welcomes research focusing on the western North Pacific and Asian coastal waters, but the study region is not limited to the Asian Pacific. The journal publishes original articles, short contributions, reviews, and correspondence in oceanography and related fields.
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