Unravelling complexities: a study on geopolitical dynamics, economic complexity, R&D impact on green innovation in China

IF 3.9 3区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI:10.1007/s00477-024-02804-1

Aihui Sun, Cem Işık, Ummara Razi, Hui Xu, Jiale Yan, Xiao Gu

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Abstract

Green innovation is essential in achieving sustainable development goals of enhancing resource efficiency, reducing environmental impact, and promoting renewable resource consumption. Identifying the factors that promote green innovation is necessary to capitalise on the benefits of green innovation. The literature has overlooked the economic and geopolitical factors influencing sustainable technological development. Limited studies have analysed the multifaced drivers of green innovations. Therefore, this study fills the gap by exploring the impact of geopolitical risk, economic complexity, and R&D expenditures on green innovation in China from 1995 to 2022. The study employed the “bootstrapping autoregressive distributed lag” (BARDL) method and examined the long-term cointegration. Diagnostic tests confirm that the data series are normally distributed, and unit root tests establish an integration order of I(1). Outcomes of the BARDL approach indicate that increases in economic complexity, R&D expenditures and economic growth significantly enhance the green innovation initiatives. Conversely, rising geopolitical risk deters steady investment in green innovation in the short and long run. The results highlight that while economic complexity and R&D expenditures have greater capabilities and resources to support innovative activities, geopolitical risk acts as a mitigator and diverts focus and resources away from long-term environmental sustainability projects; therefore, effective policy measures focusing on these variables can increase investments in green innovations.

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揭示复杂性：关于地缘政治动态、经济复杂性、研发对中国绿色创新影响的研究

绿色创新对于实现提高资源效率、减少环境影响和促进可再生资源消费等可持续发展目标至关重要。要充分利用绿色创新的好处，就必须找出促进绿色创新的因素。文献忽略了影响可持续技术发展的经济和地缘政治因素。对绿色创新的多方面驱动因素进行分析的研究十分有限。因此，本研究通过探讨 1995 至 2022 年地缘政治风险、经济复杂性和研发支出对中国绿色创新的影响，填补了这一空白。研究采用了 "自引导自回归分布滞后"（BARDL）方法，并检验了长期协整关系。诊断检验证实数据序列呈正态分布，单位根检验确定了 I（1）的积分阶数。BARDL 方法的结果表明，经济复杂性、研发支出和经济增长的增加会显著促进绿色创新举措。相反，地缘政治风险的上升会在短期和长期内阻碍对绿色创新的稳定投资。结果突出表明，虽然经济复杂性和研发支出具有更强的能力和资源来支持创新活动，但地缘政治风险会起到缓解作用，并分散对长期环境可持续发展项目的关注和资源；因此，针对这些变量的有效政策措施可以增加对绿色创新的投资。

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来源期刊

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

9.50%

发文量

189

审稿时长

3.8 months

期刊介绍： Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA) will publish research papers, reviews and technical notes on stochastic and probabilistic approaches to environmental sciences and engineering, including interactions of earth and atmospheric environments with people and ecosystems. The basic idea is to bring together research papers on stochastic modelling in various fields of environmental sciences and to provide an interdisciplinary forum for the exchange of ideas, for communicating on issues that cut across disciplinary barriers, and for the dissemination of stochastic techniques used in different fields to the community of interested researchers. Original contributions will be considered dealing with modelling (theoretical and computational), measurements and instrumentation in one or more of the following topical areas: - Spatiotemporal analysis and mapping of natural processes. - Enviroinformatics. - Environmental risk assessment, reliability analysis and decision making. - Surface and subsurface hydrology and hydraulics. - Multiphase porous media domains and contaminant transport modelling. - Hazardous waste site characterization. - Stochastic turbulence and random hydrodynamic fields. - Chaotic and fractal systems. - Random waves and seafloor morphology. - Stochastic atmospheric and climate processes. - Air pollution and quality assessment research. - Modern geostatistics. - Mechanisms of pollutant formation, emission, exposure and absorption. - Physical, chemical and biological analysis of human exposure from single and multiple media and routes; control and protection. - Bioinformatics. - Probabilistic methods in ecology and population biology. - Epidemiological investigations. - Models using stochastic differential equations stochastic or partial differential equations. - Hazardous waste site characterization.