Characteristics and trends of Atlantic tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from African easterly waves

IF 3 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Emily Bercos‐Hickey, Christina M. Patricola
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to develop from African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagate across North Africa and out over the Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between AEWs and TCs has been the subject of numerous previous studies. There are, however, many Atlantic TCs that do not have AEW origins. In this study, we provide a novel analysis of the characteristics and trends of Atlantic TCs both with and without AEW origins using 43 years of observational and reanalysis data. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with and without AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2022, and ran objective tracking algorithms on reanalysis data to identify the AEWs and TCs during this time period. We found statistically significant differences in the characteristics and environments of TCs with and without AEW origins. TCs with AEW origins are stronger and costlier, experience more favorable environmental conditions, and are more likely to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean when compared to TCs without AEW origins. Additionally, the 43‐year increasing trend in Atlantic TC activity is primarily driven by an increase in TCs with AEW origins that is associated with increasing AEW frequency and strength, with anthropogenic aerosols potentially driving this trend. In contrast, we found no trend in TCs without AEW origins.
大西洋热带气旋从非洲东风波浪中发展和不从非洲东风波浪中发展的特点和趋势
众所周知,大西洋热带气旋(TCs)是由非洲东风波(AEWs)发展而来的,这些东风波穿过北非,传播到大西洋上空。非洲东风波和热带气旋之间的关系是以前许多研究的主题。然而,大西洋上有许多热带气旋并非源于非洲东风。在本研究中,我们利用 43 年的观测和再分析数据,对有无 AEW 起源的大西洋热气旋的特征和趋势进行了新的分析。为了开展这项研究,我们从 1980 年到 2022 年的观测记录中识别了有和没有 AEW 起源的热带气旋,并在再分析数据上运行了客观跟踪算法,以识别这一时期的 AEW 和热带气旋。我们发现,起源于 AEW 和非 AEW 的热带气旋在特征和环境上存在显著的统计学差异。与无 AEW 起源的热带气旋相比,有 AEW 起源的热带气旋强度更大、成本更高、环境条件更有利,而且更有可能在墨西哥湾和加勒比海登陆。此外,大西洋热带气旋活动 43 年来的增加趋势主要是由源于 AEW 的热带气旋的增加所驱动的,这与 AEW 频率和强度的增加有关,人为气溶胶可能是这一趋势的驱动因素。与此相反,我们发现没有源于大气环流的热带气旋没有增长趋势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
16.80
自引率
4.50%
发文量
163
审稿时长
3-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society is a journal published by the Royal Meteorological Society. It aims to communicate and document new research in the atmospheric sciences and related fields. The journal is considered one of the leading publications in meteorology worldwide. It accepts articles, comprehensive review articles, and comments on published papers. It is published eight times a year, with additional special issues. The Quarterly Journal has a wide readership of scientists in the atmospheric and related fields. It is indexed and abstracted in various databases, including Advanced Polymers Abstracts, Agricultural Engineering Abstracts, CAB Abstracts, CABDirect, COMPENDEX, CSA Civil Engineering Abstracts, Earthquake Engineering Abstracts, Engineered Materials Abstracts, Science Citation Index, SCOPUS, Web of Science, and more.
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