Detecting house price bubbles in G7 countries: New evidence and heterogeneous determinants

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2024.106107

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In recent years, the high growth of house prices in G7 countries has attracted some attention from all sectors due to the role of the real estate bubble in the global financial crisis of 2008. In this research, we analyzed the house price bubbles and their determinants in G7 countries. Firstly, we detected multiple house price bubbles in G7 countries between 1970 and 2022 and located when the house price bubbles emerged and burst. Second, we investigated the determinants of house price bubbles in each country and in the G7 countries as a whole. The results show that the level of house price bubbles and their determinants is significantly diversified over countries. However, total population, size of private debt, GDP per capita, and urbanization are among the common drivers of the whole G7 countries. Based on these results, we provide some suggestions on the critical points for a stable real estate market development.

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检测 G7 国家的房价泡沫：新证据和异质性决定因素

近年来，由于房地产泡沫在 2008 年全球金融危机中的作用，G7 国家房价的高增长引起了各界的关注。在本研究中，我们分析了 G7 国家的房价泡沫及其决定因素。首先，我们检测了 1970 至 2022 年间 G7 国家的多个房价泡沫，并定位了房价泡沫出现和破裂的时间。其次，我们研究了各国以及整个 G7 国家房价泡沫的决定因素。结果表明，各国的房价泡沫水平及其决定因素存在显著差异。然而，总人口、私人债务规模、人均 GDP 和城市化是整个 G7 国家的共同驱动因素。基于这些结果，我们就房地产市场稳定发展的关键点提出了一些建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance