Subfield-level crop yield mapping without ground truth data: A scale transfer framework

Abstract

Ongoing advances in satellite remote sensing data and machine learning methods have enabled crop yield estimation at various spatial and temporal resolutions. While yield mapping at broader scales (e.g., state or county level) has become common, mapping at finer scales (e.g., field or subfield) has been limited by the lack of ground truth data for model training and evaluation. Here we present a scale transfer framework, named Quantile loss Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (QDANN), that leverages knowledge from county-level datasets to map crop yields at the subfield level. Based on the strategy of unsupervised domain adaptation, QDANN is trained on labeled county-level data and unlabeled subfield-level data, with no requirement for yield information at the subfield level. We evaluate the proposed method applied to Landsat imagery and Gridmet weather data for maize, soybean, and winter wheat fields in the United States, using as reference data yield monitor records from roughly one million field-year observations. The model is compared with several process-based and machine learning-based benchmark approaches that train on simulated yield records or county-level data. QDANN-estimated yields achieved an R² score (RMSE) of 48 % (2.29 t/ha), 32 % (0.85 t/ha), and 39 % (1.40 t/ha) for maize, soybean, and winter wheat in comparison with the ground-based yield measures, respectively. These performances are higher than benchmark approaches and are nearly as good as models trained on field-level data. When aggregated to the county level, the improvement achieved by QDANN is more pronounced and the R² scores (RMSE) improved to 78 % (0.98 t/ha), 62 % (0.37 t/ha), and 53 % (1.00 t/ha) for maize, soybean, and winter wheat, respectively. This study demonstrates that the proposed scale transfer framework can serve as a reliable approach for yield mapping at the subfield level when there is no access to fine-scale yield information. Based on the QDANN model, we have generated and made publicly available 30-m annual yield maps for major crop-producing states in the U.S. since 2008.