An examination of the effect of external factors on zero-emission vehicle adoption in the United States

Abstract

This study aims to extend and investigate how external factors (socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, EV-related policy mechanisms, transportation, and climate conditions) influence the actual adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Using panel data from 49 U.S. states from 2011 to 2020, we estimate a dynamic spatial Durbin model under the space fixed effect to examine the effects of these attributes on BEV adoption in the neighboring states. The results of the analysis suggest that purchase incentives, the number of public charging stations, gasoline prices, and the Hispanic or Latino population, respectively, have positive total effects on state BEV adoption rates in both the short- and long-term. Particularly, the number of public charging stations has positive direct and indirect effects in both the short- and long-term. Gasoline prices have positive spillover effects in both the short- and long-term. The long-term effects of the three characteristics on BEV adoption are greater than their short-term effects. Based on our findings, this study can provide state officials with practical directions and recommendations to help them allocate their resources and implement timely and appropriate regulations, as well as collaborations between states to increase the penetration rates of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs).