Traffic accident severity prediction based on interpretable deep learning model

Abstract

Accurately predicting traffic accident severity is crucial for road safety. However, existing studies lack interpretability in revealing the relationship between accident severity and key factors. To address this issue, we propose a new interpretable analytical framework. The framework utilizes XGBoost and SHAP to select effective factors. Then the AISTGCN model is constructed by improving the STGCN through the local attention mechanism to predict the severity of the accident. Finally, DeepLIFT is used to interpret the forecasts and identify key factors. Our experiments using real-world UK accident data demonstrate that our proposed AISTGCN outperforms baseline models in outcome prediction with an accuracy of 0.8772. The computation time was reduced and the reliability of predictions was enhanced through screening for effective factors. Furthermore, DeepLIFT provides more reasonable explanations when explaining accidents of different severity, indicating that vehicle count significantly impacts. Our framework aids in developing effective safety measures to reduce accidents.