MRGS-LSTM: a novel multi-site wind speed prediction approach with spatio-temporal correlation

Abstract

The wind energy industry is witnessing a new era of extraordinary growth as the demand for renewable energy continues to grow. However, accurately predicting wind speed remains a significant challenge due to its high fluctuation and randomness. These difficulties hinder effective wind farm management and integration into the power grid. To address this issue, we propose the MRGS-LSTM model to improve the accuracy and reliability of wind speed prediction results, which considers the complex spatio-temporal correlations between features at multiple sites. First, mRMR-RF filters the input multidimensional meteorological variables and computes the feature subset with minimum information redundancy. Second, the feature map topology is constructed by quantifying the spatial distance distribution of the multiple sites and the maximum mutual information coefficient among the features. On this basis, the GraphSAGE framework is used to sample and aggregate the feature information of neighboring sites to extract spatial feature vectors. Then, the spatial feature vectors are input into the long short-term memory (LSTM) model after sliding window sampling. The LSTM model learns the temporal features of wind speed data to output the predicted results of the spatio-temporal correlation at each site. Finally, through the simulation experiments based on real historical data from the Roscoe Wind Farm in Texas, United States, we prove that our model MRGS-LSTM improves the performance of MAE by 15.43%–27.97% and RMSE by 12.57%–25.40% compared with other models of the same type. The experimental results verify the validity and superiority of our proposed model and provide a more reliable basis for the scheduling and optimization of wind farms.